Apr 062016
 

Biotechnology stocks had a huge move today. Breakout for IBB on the daily chart at $270. The breakout was on heavy volume. The candlestick today was a tall white shaven bottom and shaven head candlestick. Volume, OBB, RSI and MACD are confirming the move for this market-cap weighted ETF.

Breakout for iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) on heavy volume

IBB 6-Month Daily Chart

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF

XBI is an equal weighted etf which had a similar move today.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/04/06/biotech-the-waiting-game/

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Apr 062016
 

The U.S. oil-directed rig count totaled nearly 1,600 rigs in the fall of 2014. However, the decline in oil prices over the past 18 months has reduced drilling activity, with just 413 rigs operating as of February 19, 2016

Low oil prices and reduced capital expenditure for drilling new wells have been reflected in declining crude oil production in the United States since May 2015, despite the continuing increase in initial production rates of the new wells that were still being drilled and completed. Oil production from new wells has so far been able to keep U.S. crude oil production from falling significantly below its level in late 2014. However, EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that U.S. oil production will decline over the next two years, falling to 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and to 8.2 million b/d in 2017.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25472

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Apr 062016
 

Even though hydraulic fracturing has been in use for more than six decades, it has only recently been used to produce a significant portion of crude oil in the United States. This technique, often used in combination with horizontal drilling, has allowed the United States to increase its oil production faster than at any time in its history. Based on the most recent available data from states, EIA estimates that oil production from hydraulically fractured wells now makes up about half of total U.S. crude oil production.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25372

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Apr 062016
 

The following chart provides a graphical perspective on the liquid fuels production and consumption balance. With all the daily bantering on the networks, the chart provides a base case for a general overview of the imbalance. You can click on the link below the chart for a detailed review of the data and assumptions used in the construction of the chart. Draw your own conclusions and trade accordingly.

Global oil inventories are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.6 million b/d in 2016 and by an additional 0.6 million b/d in 2017. These inventory builds are larger than previously expected, delaying the rebalancing of the oil market and contributing to lower forecast oil prices. Compared with last month's STEO, EIA has revised forecast supply growth higher for 2016 and revised forecast demand growth lower for both 2016 and 2017. Higher 2016 supply in this month's STEO is based on indications that production is more resilient to lower prices than previously expected. Notably, revisions to historical Russian data, which raised the baseline for Russian production, carry through much of the forecast. Additionally, lower expectations for global economic growth contributed to a reduction in the oil demand forecast.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Apr 062016
 

Long-term chart for the CRB Index showing the major downtrend in commodities.  It is below the 2009 low.  Where is the bottom?

CRB Index Chart for 2004-2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomson_Reuters/Jefferies_CRB_Index

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Apr 052016
 

All three trends for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury indicate a flight to safety as the yield plummets. This does not bode well for the continuation of the near-term uptrend in the S&P 500 Index. And it is definitely a negative indicator for major world indexes.

Flight ot safety continues as indicated by the yield for the 10-Year US Treasury.

U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Index 2004-2016

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Apr 042016
 

It is a good idea to step back and look at a chart for West Texas Intermediate with a wide-angle lens. For 2015 and 2016, the 200-day moving averages defined the major downtrend and resistance on each of the near-term uptrends. The major trend, intermediate trend and near-term trend are all down. WTI will test major support at $35. Like I said before in a previous post, the spigots are wide open. A break below $35 will have a negative effect on world indexes. Banks have exposure to large loans given to the shale plays in the boom years.

West Texas Intermediate long-term chart showing the major downtrend.

WTI Line Chart 2004-2016

Reference the last chart analysis for WTI as crude approaches major support at $35 and the 50-day simple moving average.

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“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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 Posted by at 11:27 pm
Apr 042016
 

Beginning in 2013, you can see the start of the divergences in the TSX and Dow. In 2015, the divergence accelerated as oil prices collapsed. Major support for the Dow is around 16,000. Major support for the TSX Index is around 12,000.

Comparison of the TSX and the Dow from 2004 to 2016

Comparison of the TSX and the Dow from 2004 to 2016

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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