Monthly Archives: November 2012

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) logarithmic chart analysis

Long-term uptrend and major lateral trading band
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) Monthly Logarithmic Chart showing the upward sloping trendline with support and resistance levels.

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) Monthly Logarithmic Chart 2005-2012


Historical price for gold in U.S. dollars for the period 1974-2012.

Gold Price in USD/oz Linear Scale 1974-2012


The above charts provide a long-term perspective for gold. The first chart shows the pricing for SPDR Gold ETF (ticker:GLD) for the period 2005 to 2012 in the logarithmic scale. The second smaller chart extends the date range from 1974 to 2012 and shows the actual price of gold in U.S. dollars in the linear scale.

There are two generally accepted principles in technical analysis: (1) individual stocks and broad indexes move in trends, and (2) the trend will continue until there is evidence to the contrary. How is this relevant for gold? The long-term trend for gold is up and is currently trading in a major and intermediate lateral trading band. And the near-term trend is down. Given the assumption that the long-term uptrend will continue for gold, a breakout above resistance of 174 and 185 (ticker:GLD) would confirm the continuation of the long-term uptrend. On the contrary, a break below support of 150 (ticker:GLD) would raise a red flag for the continuation of the uptrend.

Significant dates in modern gold history:

  • August, 1971: Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon takes the U.S. dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35 (U.S.).
  • March, 1973: Most major countries adopt floating-exchange-rate system.
  • January, 1980: Gold hits record high of $850 an ounce.
  • August, 1999: Gold falls to a low of $251.70.
  • November, 2004: SPDR Gold Shares ETF launched
  • November, 2005: Spot gold breaches $500 for the first time since December 1987.
  • May, 2006: Gold prices peak at $730 an ounce.
  • November, 2007: Spot gold hits a 28-year high of $845.40 an ounce.
  • March, 2008: Benchmark gold contract trades over $1,000 for the first time in U.S. futures market.
  • September, 2008: Spot gold rises by nearly $90 an ounce, a record one-day gain.
  • September, 2010: Gold prices reach $1,300 an ounce.
  • September, 2011: Gold prices hit a high of $1,895 USD/oz

http://www.kinross.com/investor-centre/gold-history.aspx

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Index chart analysis

Near-term uptrend for the TSX meeting resistance at 12,200
TSX index chart analysis based on the daily bar chart showing resistance at 12,200.

TSX Index YTD Daily Bar Chart

The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis: old support becomes resistance when it is breached and old resistance becomes support on a breakout. In the above chart, you can see the TSX Index struggling to break resistance at 12,200 which was support in the old trading range. Even if we get a breakout at 12,200 I will dust off my old charts detailing the old trading range of 12,500 to 12,200. The TSX had a dismal three year performance and the risk profile is still to the downside.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index published on November 9, 2012.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Canadian Natural (CNQ:TSX) chart analysis

Intermediate trend is down for Canadian Natural Resources
CNQ chart analysis showing the downward sloping intermediate trendline.

CNQ YTD Daily Bar Chart

When you see a chart like this for a major Canadian oil company, you can understand the dismal performance of the TSX Index.

Reference the last chart analysis for CNQ published on July 17, 2012.

Reference the corporate website for CNQ.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

S&P 500 Index chart analysis

Intermediate trend is down for the S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index chart analysis showing the downward sloping trendline.

S&P 500 Index YTD Daily Chart

The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis: support levels that are breached become resistance in a new uptrend. That is the case for the 1410 to 1425 resistance zone.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index posted on November 12, 2012.

Reference my chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index published on September 26, 2012 showing the support zone and the projected retracement zone if support was breached.

Reference the candlestick chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index published on April 17, 2012 where I gave the index a high probability of breaking resistance.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

S&P 500 Index bar chart analysis

Can the S&P 500 Index hold the 200-day moving average?
Bar chart for the S&P 500 Index showing support and resistance levels.

S&P 500 Index YTD Daily Bar Chart

Near-term downtrend for the S&P 500. If the Index cannot hold the 200-day simple moving average which is near the 50% retracement zone, then the next test is 1,340 which is the 66% retracement zone. If the index cannot hold 1,340 the next support level is around the June low price zone of 1,275.

When you trade online, always assess the probabilities. A comfortable cash level is appropriate until there is technical evidence of a reversal of the near-term downtrend.

Update for November 23, 2012: S&P500 held support at the 66% retracement zone on the intermediate downtrend. Today, it is currently trading at 1,405 and will meet resistance at 1,410 and then major resistance at 1,425.  The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis: what was support on the way down is now resistance on the way up. The near-term trend is up but the intermediate trend is still down.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index based on the weekly chart.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Index technical analysis

Still waiting for a resolution of the lateral trading band
TSX Index still trading in the lateral trading band with support at 12,200 and resistance at 12,500.

TSX Index YTD Daily Chart

A break below support of 12,200 would indicate the start of a near-term downtrend. I would look for support around the 50% retracement zone of 11,900. A break below 11,900 would indicate a test of the 66% retracement zone around 11,700. A break below 11,700 would indicate a test of support on the weekly chart around 11,500. A break below 11,500 would indicate a full retracement of the move from the June low around 11,300. After that, I will have to dust off some of my older charts indicating the major support level of 11,000. An index or stock can fall from its own weight even in the absence of above average volume on the sell-off.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index based on the weekly chart.

Take a look at the long-term logarithmic chart of the TSX Index for the period 1988 to 2012.

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Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

VIX daily chart analysis

Near-term uptrend for the VIX
VIX chart analysis showing the near-term uptrend with resistance levels.

VIX YTD Candlestick chart

VIX, the so-called fear gauge, has an inverse correlation (not always perfect) to the major U.S. Indexes. When the VIX topped in June, the S&P 500 bottomed. When the VIX bottomed in September, the S&P Index topped. Take your cues from the charts and trade accordingly. The current resistance point is 19 followed by 21. The extent of the upward movement for VIX will determine the extent of the retracement for the S&P 500 Index in the post-election correction.

Reference the last chart analysis for the VIX.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca