Monthly Archives: February 2013

XMA – S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index Fund

XMA is testing major support at $16.00
Candlestick chart of XMA - S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index Fund  showing the major downtrend with support at $16.00 courtesy of <a href=

XMA 5-Year Candlestick Chart courtesy of BigCharts.com

 

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index.

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund.

Reference iShares XMA – S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index Fund overview.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Composite Index chart analysis

TSX Index could test support of 12,500
TSX index weekly chart showing support and resistance levels

TSX Index 3-Year Weekly Chart courtesy of BigCharts.com

The intermediate trend is up for the TSX Index and the near-term trend is down. Resistance is located around the 12,800 level with support at 12,500. The energy and materials sectors, representing 45% of the TSX Index, are struggling and there is an increased probability that the TSX will test support at 12,500.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Note chart analysis

Intermediate uptrend with support at 1.900%
Intermediate uptrend for the U.S. Treasury 10 Year note with support at 1.90%

U.S.Treasury 10 Year Note 1-Year Chart courtesy of BigCharts.com

The U.S. Treasury 10 Year Bond is one of the four asset classes that I monitor which include stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. The intermediate uptrend for the 10 year bond yield (bond price and yield have an inverse relationship – bond price drops then the yield rises) represents the increased movement of capital from the relative safety of this U.S. Treasury to stocks and to a lesser extent, commodities.

Reference the last chart analysis for the U.S. Treasury 10 Year Note

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) area chart

Intermediate uptrend for WTI with resistance at $97.50 – $98.00 zone
Two year chart for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude showing the intermediate uptrend and resistance levels.

WTI 2-Year Weekly Area Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above two-year weekly area chart (shaded area) for West Texas Intermediate crude shows the near-term and intermediate uptrend. The major trend is down. WTI is trading above the 50-day (blue line) and the 200-day (red line) simple moving averages and the 50-day has crossed above (golden cross) the 200-day moving average. The current resistance level is the $97.50 to $98.00 price zone.  This is the near-term price at which traders take profits. If WTI can breakout above $98.00, the major resistance zone will be the September, 2012 close of $99.01. And the even number of $100 around the intraday high of $100.42 would also be a major resistance level.

Brent crude is the  the world standard (Europe and Asia) for crude oil pricing and West Texas Intermediate is trading at a discount relative to Brent pricing. I have charted the differential in a previous post.  One could argue that WTI is trading in a sweet spot providing a reasonable profit for U.S. based oil companies while not a threat to increased inflation.  It is a different situation for Canada where Western Canadian Select is trading at a $30.00 (rounded) discount to WTI which in turn is trading at a discount of $20.00 to Brent.  There is no need to shed any tears for big Canadian oil companies like Suncor which are still generating positive cash flow at current pricing levels.  But, from an investment perspective; world class oil companies in the U.S. and other countries will attract the investment dollars.  An investment in Canadian oil companies is “dead” money for the intermediate term.  Pipelines cannot be constructed overnight to transport crude. And, then there is the depressed price for North American natural gas.  LNG terminals are expensive and controversial.

There are a number of factors that affect the price of West Texas Intermediate:

  1. Supply and demand balance
  2. U.S. Dollar — WTI normally has an inverse correlation to the value of the U.S. dollar
  3. Supply  — there is currently a glut of oil at the  Cushing, Okla caused in part by pipeline constraints
  4. Supply — surging production out of the Bakken fields in North Dakota and Saskatchewan
  5. Supply — hydraulic fracturing is increasing production
  6. Supply — geopolitical risk associated mostly with the Middle East — one known-known is Iran
  7. Demand — tepid U.S. GDP growth in the the 2% range
  8. Demand — single digit GDP growth of  7% to 8% for China

Reference the last chart analysis for WTI highlighting the price differential versus Brent.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chart analysis

Chart highlights the differential between Brent and WTI
Three year chart for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude highlighting the differential. Both products are in an intermediate uptrend.

WTI and Brent Crude 3-Year chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Key points from the above chart:

  • WTI and Brent wide differential is a relatively recent development
  • Differential widened starting in 2011
  • Differential for February 5, 2013 was $116.52 – $96.65 = $19.87
  • Price for Western Canadian Select (not shown) on February 5, 2012 was $66.74
  • Brent versus WCS differential was $116.52 – $66.74 = $49.78
  • WTI versus WCS differential was $96.65 – $66.74 = $29.91

Reference a recent chart analysis for the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Copper chart analysis showing resistance at $3.80

Positive correlation between copper and TSX Index
Copper chart analysis using a weekly line chart and a TSX Index overlay. Correlation coefficient is identified on the chart.

Copper 3-Year Weekly Chart with TSX Index Overlay – courtesy of StockCharts.com

The major trend is sideways for copper. The intermediate and near-term trends are up with resistance at $3.80.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Divergence: U.S. and Canadian Energy Sectors

A major reason is the Western Canadian Select price differential
A performance chart for XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR (ticker:XLE) and XEG - S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund (ticker:XEG)

XLE and XEG Performance Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above chart plots the performance of the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors since the March, 2009 low. I am using two ETFs as a representation of the sectors: XLE – Energy Select Sector SPDR and XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund. XLE gained 118% since the the March, 2009 low compared to a gain of 54% for XEG.

The divergence between the between the U.S. energy sector (XLE) and the Canadian energy sector (XEG) is evident on the above chart since late 2011. The major reason for the divergence is the crude oil price differential for Western Canadian Select caused in part by pipeline constraints.

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund.

Relevant articles picked from the Web

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca