Author Archives: Trader

TSX Index candlestick chart

Gravestone Doji and 13,500 resistance on the TSX daily chart
TSX Index daily candlestick chart highlighting the gravestone doji and the resistance level of 13,500.

TSX Index Daily Candlestick chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

I am not surprised to see the gravestone doji on the today’s TSX candlestick daily chart. The doji is a significant reversal indicator. It indicates that the near-term trend that started on Monday has ended at the major resistance level of 13,500. Like I said, this is no surprise.

Reference previous posts for the TSX Index showing the 13,500 resistance level.

Natural Gas Monthly Price – US Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit Nov,1993-Nov,2013

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Precision Drilling candlestick chart

Back to the support level on the weekly chart
Precision Drilling chart showing the return to the support level.

Precision Drilling 2-Year Weekly chart

On July 28, 2013, I published a chart showing the breakout above the resistance level. This updated weekly chart shows Precision Drilling back to the breakout point which is now the support level. The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Copper 1-year daily bar chart

Copper near-term uptrend and resistance zone
Copper chart showing the near-term uptrend and the resistance zone.

Copper 1-Year Daily Bar Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The major trend is down, the intermediate trend is sideways and the near-term trend is up. I am focusing on the near-term trend (last three weeks) in this analysis. The near-term trend is up and the resistance zone is identified on the above chart. A break above the resistance zone would indicate a target of $3.80. The price of copper is a good proxy for the growth in the world economy:in particular for China. A breakout above the resistance zone would bode well for the TSX Index which has a relatively large weighting in base metal stocks. A failure for copper to breakout above the resistance zone would indicate that the TSX Index will not breakout above the 13,500 resistance level.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper based on the weekly chart.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index.

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“It is not when you buy that counts, it is when you sell”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: TSX Index Daily Chart

High probability TSX Index will test support of 12,900
Tall shaven head and bottom candlestick does not bode well for the TSX Index.  High probability the index will test major support of 12,900.

TSX Index 7 Month Daily Candlestick Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Technical analysis is all about evaluating probabilities. There are no sure things when you evaluate a chart: just guideposts. In the near-term, the above chart indicates a high probability that the TSX Index will test support of 12,900. And there is a low probability that the index will break resistance of 13,500.

Here are the negative points from the above chart:

  1. Tall shaven head and bottom candlestick on the chart today
  2. The 10-Day SMA crossed below the 20-Day SMA
  3. The volume was average today but volume does not have to confirm a downtrend
  4. RSI is confirming the downtrend
  5. Notice the divergence when RSI did not confirm the November high

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index showing the performance by sectors.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper which has a major impact on the materials sector.

Reference the breakout for the TSX above resistance on October 18, 2013. This is now the support zone on the above chart. The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis.

Reference the importance of the 12,900 support zone which was a a area of consolidation back to early 2012.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Coffee spot price weekly chart

A major downtrend for coffee would be an understatement
Major downtrend for the price of coffee over the last three years.

Coffee 3 Year Weekly Chart

The 200-day simple moving average is a good approximation of the major downtrend for coffee. Reference my recent chart analysis for copper for another commodity that has seen better times.

The relatively low spot price for coffee is definitely not reflected in the price of your daily caffeine fix at Tim Hortons.

Updated News Articles

Brazil Drought Jolts Coffee ETNs — February 3, 2014

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Canadian dollar candlestick chart

Maybe a bottom for the Canadian dollar at $0.9400
Three year weekly chart for the Canadian dollar showing major support at $0.9400.

Canadian dollar weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The major trend is down, the intermediate trend is down and the near-term trend is down for the Canadian dollar. It is trading below the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages. But in all this negativity, there is a glimmer of hope—depends on your perspective—that the bottom is $0.9400. This was a support point back in October, 2011 and the hammer is an indication of a bottom. But never trade the bottom: you know the adage about never trying to catch a falling knife.

Reference the last analysis for the TSX Index and take a look at the performance of the materials sector. Then take a look at the chart for copper. The Canadian dollar can never escape the fact that it is a commodity currency.

Canada has some nice pizza restaurants and great ski hills: it is not all about copper and oil.

Reference relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Sector Indexes YTD Performance

TSX Index up 7.74% YTD
TSX Index sector performance showing the outpeformance by financials and the underperfromance by materials

TSX Index YTD Sector Performance courtesy of StockCharts.com

Energy, Financial and Materials represent 75% of the TSX Index. The Materials sector which represents 16% of the TSX index is down 31.89% YTD. This sector is heavily weighted to gold producers and there is not a ray of light on the horizon for gold or base metals. Reference my chart analysis for copper.

In summary, with the huge underperformance by materials there is a low parbability that the TSX can break major resistance of 13,500.

Reference the sector performance for the S&P 500 Index which is a stark contrast to the TSX sector performance.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Copper 3-year weekly chart analysis

Copper could test major support

Copper weekly chart showing the major downtrend, intermediate downtrend and the near-term downtrend

Copper is trading below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. The major trend is down. The intermediate trend is down. The near-term trend is down. And copper could test the major support zone in the above weekly chart.

The TSX Index will not break resistance of 13,500 with the negative implications of this chart on the materials sector.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca