Author Archives: Trader

Technical Analysis of the TSX Index

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How will the near-term lateral trading range be resolved?
TSX Index trading in a near-term lateral trading range with resistance at 11,700 and support at 11,200

TSX Index 1 Year Daily Bar Chart

Determining the trend and trading in the direction of the trend is the most important rule of technical analysis.

Yes, the TSX Index has a negative technical profile. The major trend (past year) is sideways. The intermediate trend is down. And the near-term trend is sideways with resistance at 11,700 and support at 11,200. Trading online is all about evaluating the probabilities and at this stage there is a higher probability that the TSX Index will break support at 11,200 and test major support of 11,000. A breakout above resistance of 11,700 will see the index meet resistance around the 12,000 level.

You have three options when you trade online. You can buy the market, short the market or stand aside with a comfortable cash position. At this stage in the market, irrespective of relatively low valuations, the safest bet is to do nothing and rest comfortably with your above average cash position.

Reference the last chart analysis of the TSX Index posted on May 18, 2012.

What are the critical support levels for the TSX Index? What is the downside risk for the TSX Index? Reference my post from October 3, 2011 which is just as relevant now.

Don’t forget to evaluate the longer-range charts for the major indexes. You will miss a lot of important price information it you do not take the occasional look at these charts. I posted a logarithmic chart of the TSX Index on November 21, 2011 which is still relevant today and covers the period from 1988 to 2011. I will publish an updated long-term chart showing the overall trend and support levels.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

S&P 500 Index candlestick chart analysis

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Bullish Engulfing Pattern with resistance at 1,350
Candlestick chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index showing an bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with near-term resistance at 1,350

S&P 500 Index 3 Year Chart

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index which highlights the support levels.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note

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Monitor the resistance level of 1.70% and then 1.80%
Candlestick chart showing the the key resistance levels of the U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note

U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note 3 Year Chart

Has a negative technical profile as indicated by the major trend which is sideways and intermediate trend which is down.

The yield would have to move above the resistance levels of 1.70% and 1.80% if the near-term rally in U.S. equities is to continue. This represents the movement of capital from the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury to U.S. equities. A sustained advance of the 10-Year yield to the 2.40% level would indicate the upward movement in commodity based indexes like Canada, Australia and Brazil as investors take on more risk.

Reference the last chart analysis of the U.S Treasury 10-Year Note based on the daily chart.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: VIX – CBOE Volatility Index

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Key support level for the VIX is 20
Monitor the key support level of 20 for the VIX

VIX 3 Year Weekly Chart

The VIX is the fear gauge for the U.S. market and has an inverse correlation to the major U.S. Indexes. A break below support of 20 would be an indication that the near-term rally in U.S. stocks can continue.

Reference the last chart analysis of the VIX.

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical analysis of copper

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Intermediate trend is down for copper
The intermediate trend is down for copper with major support at $3.00/lb

One Year Copper Chart

Copper is seen as a leading indicator for the global economy. The intermediate trend for copper is down which does not bode well for equities overall and commodity based equities in particular.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper posted on May 18, 2012.

View Kitco for updated charts and other time periods.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Index

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Critical support zone for the S&P 500 Index
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index showing the critical support zone of 1,285 to 1,300

S&P 500 Index 2 Year Weekly Chart

The critical support zone represents a retracement of 50% from the April, 2012 high to the November, 2012 low. There is money on the sideline that will flow into equities at this level. And the shorts will cover if the S&P 500 Index continues to advance above the support zone.

A confirmed break below this support level is an ominous warning for this U.S. Index.

Against the backdrop of the Eurozone crisis with Greece and Spain in the spotlight, there are four major U.S. reports the week of May 28, 2012:

  1. On Tuesday, the U.S. Conference Board reports on consumer confidence in May. Economists expect a reading of 69.5.
  2. On Thursday, the U.S. Labour Department reports on initial jobless claims in the week ending May 26. Economists expect 370,000 new claims.
  3. On Friday, The U.S. Institute for Supply Management issues its manufacturing index for May. Economists expect a reading of 53.9.
  4. On Friday, the U.S. Labour Department issues its jobs report for May. Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.1 per cent, and non-farm payrolls to add 150,000 jobs.

Enjoy your trading week.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index posted on April 16, 2012 when it was still holding above the upward sloping trendline.

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: iShares Brazil Index ETF – EWZ

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Double bottom for the Brazil Index ETF
Technical analysis of the Brazil iShares ETF showing a double bottom

iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ) 2 Year Chart

Down 27% from the the March, 2012 high with a possible double bottom at $50.00.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note daily bar chart

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Intermediate trend is down with support at 1.70%
U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note chart analysis showing support and resistance levels.

U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note Daily Bar Chart

This is a key indicator that I monitor daily. Safe haven buying has pushed the yield to a record low.

Reference the last chart analysis for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca