Category Archives: Other Topics

West Texas Intermediate weekly chart

Neat-term downtrend with support at $85.00
Near-term downtrend for WTIC with support at  $85.00 and major support at $80.00

WTIC Weekly Candlestick Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Near-term downtrend for WTIC with support at $85.00 and major support at $80.00. The intermediate trend is sideways.

Reference the last chart analysis for WTIC.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Copper candlestick chart analysis

Hammer on the chart today is a reversal pattern
A hammer appeared on the daily chart for copper. A hammer is a reversal pattern.

Copper Daily Candlestick Chart

The hammer on today’s chart is a reversal pattern. This is an indicator that the intermediate downtrend will end. It does not mean that copper will suddenly reverse direction: it could ease into a consolidation zone. The price action today is reflected in the hammer. Copper opened at $3.18 and then traded down to $3.06 which was close to major support at $3.00. It then closed at $3.20.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper based on the weekly chart.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis of copper

Increased probability copper will test major support at $3.00
Copper candlestick weekly chart showing the intermediate downtrend and major support at $3.00

Copper Candlestick Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

High probability copper will test major support at $3.00. It is trading below the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. The 50 day has crossed the 200 day moving average. There was a tall dark shaven head and bottom ( very close) candlestick on the daily chart today. The RSI is at an oversold level but it can stay oversold for long periods and this is no reason to buy against the intermediate and near-term downtrend.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper.

I have posted a number of charts on Dr. Copper highlighting the tepid prognosis for the world economy. One of the charts showed the positive correlation between the price of copper and the TSX Index.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

U.S. Commodity Groups YTD Performance

Not a good YTD performance for the major commodity groups
A bar chart showing the absolute performance of the major commodity groups.

US Commodity Groups YTD Absolute Performance courtesy of StockCharts.com

Not a good YTD performance for the major commodity groups and it is reflected in the dismal YTD performance of the the TSX Composite Index.

Reference my chart analysis for copper which is included the industrial metals group in the above bar chart.

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Copper candlestick chart analysis

Copper is testing the intermediate support level of $3.40
Weekly candlestick chart for copper showing the intermediate lateral trading range with support at $3.40.

Copper 3-Year Weekly Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Copper is trading below the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. And it is testing the support level of $3.40.
And MACD is confirming the intermediate downtrend.

Reference the last chart analysis for Dr. Copper.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Near-term downtrend for copper

Yes, Dr. Copper has a tepid prognosis for the world economy
Near-term downtrend for copper with support at  $3.40

Copper Weekly Candlestick Chart – courtesy of StockCharts.com

The near-term trend for copper is down and trading below the 200-day simple moving average.

Copper and the TSX Composite Index are positively correlated. Don’t expect any major upward movement in the TSX unless copper makes a move above resistance.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper showing the positive correlation with the TSX Composite Index.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) area chart

Intermediate uptrend for WTI with resistance at $97.50 – $98.00 zone
Two year chart for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude showing the intermediate uptrend and resistance levels.

WTI 2-Year Weekly Area Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above two-year weekly area chart (shaded area) for West Texas Intermediate crude shows the near-term and intermediate uptrend. The major trend is down. WTI is trading above the 50-day (blue line) and the 200-day (red line) simple moving averages and the 50-day has crossed above (golden cross) the 200-day moving average. The current resistance level is the $97.50 to $98.00 price zone.  This is the near-term price at which traders take profits. If WTI can breakout above $98.00, the major resistance zone will be the September, 2012 close of $99.01. And the even number of $100 around the intraday high of $100.42 would also be a major resistance level.

Brent crude is the  the world standard (Europe and Asia) for crude oil pricing and West Texas Intermediate is trading at a discount relative to Brent pricing. I have charted the differential in a previous post.  One could argue that WTI is trading in a sweet spot providing a reasonable profit for U.S. based oil companies while not a threat to increased inflation.  It is a different situation for Canada where Western Canadian Select is trading at a $30.00 (rounded) discount to WTI which in turn is trading at a discount of $20.00 to Brent.  There is no need to shed any tears for big Canadian oil companies like Suncor which are still generating positive cash flow at current pricing levels.  But, from an investment perspective; world class oil companies in the U.S. and other countries will attract the investment dollars.  An investment in Canadian oil companies is “dead” money for the intermediate term.  Pipelines cannot be constructed overnight to transport crude. And, then there is the depressed price for North American natural gas.  LNG terminals are expensive and controversial.

There are a number of factors that affect the price of West Texas Intermediate:

  1. Supply and demand balance
  2. U.S. Dollar — WTI normally has an inverse correlation to the value of the U.S. dollar
  3. Supply  — there is currently a glut of oil at the  Cushing, Okla caused in part by pipeline constraints
  4. Supply — surging production out of the Bakken fields in North Dakota and Saskatchewan
  5. Supply — hydraulic fracturing is increasing production
  6. Supply — geopolitical risk associated mostly with the Middle East — one known-known is Iran
  7. Demand — tepid U.S. GDP growth in the the 2% range
  8. Demand — single digit GDP growth of  7% to 8% for China

Reference the last chart analysis for WTI highlighting the price differential versus Brent.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chart analysis

Chart highlights the differential between Brent and WTI
Three year chart for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude highlighting the differential. Both products are in an intermediate uptrend.

WTI and Brent Crude 3-Year chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Key points from the above chart:

  • WTI and Brent wide differential is a relatively recent development
  • Differential widened starting in 2011
  • Differential for February 5, 2013 was $116.52 – $96.65 = $19.87
  • Price for Western Canadian Select (not shown) on February 5, 2012 was $66.74
  • Brent versus WCS differential was $116.52 – $66.74 = $49.78
  • WTI versus WCS differential was $96.65 – $66.74 = $29.91

Reference a recent chart analysis for the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca