Category Archives: U.S. Indexes

Dow Jones Industrial Average candlestick chart

DOW could not hold the Monday breakout
Dow Jones Industrial Average could not hold above the breakout level.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Daily Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Reference my post on Monday when the Dow Jones Industrial Index broke above major resistance to an all-time high.  At that time, I penciled in the new support level of 16,600. The important point from the above chart is that the breakout failed to hold and this was a significant breakout. The 16,600 level is back again to the resistance point and support is around the 50-day simple moving average of 16,400. Caution is advised as the near-term uptrend is over and taking some money off the table maybe prudent at this point. But, and there is always a but, the major uptrend is still in effect for the Dow as approximated by the 200-day simple moving average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

US Dollar Index weekly chart

Major support for the US dollar is the $79.00 zone
Major support for the US Dollar Index is the $79.00 zone.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

The US dollar is the reserve currency and has a major impact on other markets. The inverse relationship to the price of commodities is relevant to the Canadian market. Commodities are priced in US dollars so commodity traders demand more US dollars as it declines relevant to other currencies.

United States dollar

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average bar chart

All-time closing high and new support level for the DOW
Chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing the all-time high and the new support level.

DJIA 1-Year Bar Chart

I have penciled in the the new support level of 16,600 for the Dow. This was the previous resistance level and the reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis. But always use time and percentage filters to confirm the breakout. On a time basis, if the Dow can hold above 16,600 for two days we have a new support level.

It was a strong day for the Dow in terms of the price action: closed near the high of the day.

On a volume basis, the volume was relatively low on the breakout. This could raise concerns because volume is the fuel that will drive the advance in an index or stock. But volume is not necessary to confirm a downtrend. A stock can fall with it own weight and relatively small volume.

I have concerns with the momentum indicators that I will elaborate on in another post.

As you can see, there is no sure thing in technical analysis. Just assigned probabilities.

Enjoy your trading day. If you don’t enjoy your avocation or vocation, then it is not worth doing.

Reference the last chart analysis for the Dow.

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

Technical Analysis: Dow Jones Industrial Average

Near-term uptrend with major resistance at 16600

Near-term uptrend for Dow Jones Industrial Average with major resistance at 16600.

There are three trends: major trend, intermediate trend and near-term trend. The major trend is up, the intermediate trend is sideways and the near-term trend in up.

Note the divergence and downtrend for MACD.

Conclusion: the Dow Jones Industrial Index will meet heavy resistance at 16600. Always trade in the direction of the major trend but in this case a little caution is warranted.

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

U.S. Treasury 10 year Note Yield Chart (2010-2014)

The Goldilocks trading range of 2.60% to 3.00%
U.S. Treasury Note Yield Chart showing the intermediate trading range of 2.60% to 3.00%

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Note Yield Chart

A drop below 2.60% would indicate a run to safety with a corresponding decline in equities. A rise above 3.00% would indicate an improvement in the U.S. economy and an end to quantitative easing. This could also result in a decline in equities.

The price of the bond and the yield have an inverse relationship.

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Where is the money going over the last 15 days?
S&P 500 sector performance over the last 10 days.  Money moving into utilities and energy.

S&P 500 Sector Performance

Reference the last sector performance for the S&P 500 index.

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

NASDAQ chart analysis

Major test for NASDAQ will be 4,000
Major test for NASDAQ will be 4,000

NASDAQ 1-Year Chart

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“Keep it Simple”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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