Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
The hammer candlestick line is a reversal indicator. In this case, there is an increased probability that the six day near-term downtrend for DJIA will end. The price action for the hammer is a graphical representation of the index attempting to hold support at the 13,000 level which is also near the 200-day moving average. Follow the price action the next day which will confirm or nullify the hammer. A confirmed break below 13,000 would be a bad omen for the Dow. I use a time and percentage filter for the confirmation: 2% break that holds for two trading days. There is flexibility with this trading rule. As a matter of fact, there is flexibility with most trading rules in technical analysis.
Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
The near-term trend is up for the 10-year note which represents the movement of capital from the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury to other asset classes. The S&P 500 Index at 1,446 is above resistance levels of 1,425 and 1,440 with the financial sector being a big winner. There is hope that the U.S. will not drive over the so-called fiscal cliff as politicians do what they do best: talk with no action. But hope will not sustain the advance in stocks and the U.S. Treasury for much longer. Some sort of resolution to the fiscal mess would see the yield breakout above resistance of 1.90% and a continuation of the near-term uptrend in major U.S. stock indexes. But and there is always a but when you trade online, the major trend is still down for the U.S. Treasury and the intermediate trend is sideways.
For the TSX Index (weighted to oil and material stocks) it would take a confirmed resolution of the fiscal cliff and some good economic numbers out of China to move this Canadian index. And even this may not do the job as caution is the prevailing mood as we end 2012 and will be the prevailing mood as we enter 2013. It has been a dismal three year performance for the TSX Index relative to the U.S. Indexes.
Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
Candlestick chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index showing a shooting star candlestick and a hammer. This is a graphical representation of the index struggling to break resistance at the 1,425 resistance zone.
On a daily chart, you can see the 1,425 resistance zone in addition to the next near-term resistance level of 1,440.
A confirmed break above 1,440 would setup the S&P 500 Index for a test of major resistance at 1,470.
Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis: support levels that are breached become resistance in a new uptrend. That is the case for the 1410 to 1425 resistance zone.
Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
Can the S&P 500 Index hold the 200-day moving average?
S&P 500 Index YTD Daily Bar Chart
Near-term downtrend for the S&P 500. If the Index cannot hold the 200-day simple moving average which is near the 50% retracement zone, then the next test is 1,340 which is the 66% retracement zone. If the index cannot hold 1,340 the next support level is around the June low price zone of 1,275.
When you trade online, always assess the probabilities. A comfortable cash level is appropriate until there is technical evidence of a reversal of the near-term downtrend.
Update for November 23, 2012: S&P500 held support at the 66% retracement zone on the intermediate downtrend. Today, it is currently trading at 1,405 and will meet resistance at 1,410 and then major resistance at 1,425. The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis: what was support on the way down is now resistance on the way up. The near-term trend is up but the intermediate trend is still down.
Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
VIX, the so-called fear gauge, has an inverse correlation (not always perfect) to the major U.S. Indexes. When the VIX topped in June, the S&P 500 bottomed. When the VIX bottomed in September, the S&P Index topped. Take your cues from the charts and trade accordingly. The current resistance point is 19 followed by 21. The extent of the upward movement for VIX will determine the extent of the retracement for the S&P 500 Index in the post-election correction.
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
Ascending Triangle pattern for the U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note
U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note 1 year Daily Bar Chart
Always trade in the direction of the prevailing trend: the major trend is down, the intermediate trend is sideways and the near-term trend is up. The ascending triangle pattern identified in the above chart of the U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note is usually bullish. A breakout above the upper line around 1.900% completes the pattern. A break below the upward sloping lower line would indicate the pattern has failed.Then there would be a test of near-term support at 1.600% and a possible test of major support at 1.400%.
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.
