Tag Archives: chart analysis

Divergence: U.S. and Canadian Energy Sectors

Leave a reply
A major reason is the Western Canadian Select price differential
A performance chart for XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR (ticker:XLE) and XEG - S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund (ticker:XEG)

XLE and XEG Performance Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above chart plots the performance of the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors since the March, 2009 low. I am using two ETFs as a representation of the sectors: XLE – Energy Select Sector SPDR and XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund. XLE gained 118% since the the March, 2009 low compared to a gain of 54% for XEG.

The divergence between the between the U.S. energy sector (XLE) and the Canadian energy sector (XEG) is evident on the above chart since late 2011. The major reason for the divergence is the crude oil price differential for Western Canadian Select caused in part by pipeline constraints.

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund.

Relevant articles picked from the Web

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

iShares S&P/TSX Energy Index (XEG) chart analysis

Leave a reply
Near-term uptrend for XEG but the major trend is down
A six month candlestick chart for iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (ticker:XEG) showing the near-term uptrend and resistance levels. RSI is confirming the neart-term uptrend but the intermediate trend is sideways and the major trend is down.

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (XEG) 6-Month Chart

With a weighting of 27.88% in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the energy sector holds the key (along with materials—16.88%) for the continuation of the uptrend in the index. But with the underlying commodities, including oil and natural gas, not breaking out to the upside; it is hard to be optimistic. And then there is the frustrating Canadian crude oil differential due in part to pipeline constraints. The differential compared to world oil prices (Brent) is around $50.00 per barrel. Canada imports around 40% of the oil it consumes. So eastern Canada is paying world prices for crude and western Canada is losing $1.5-billion a month because of the differential. The oil visionaries out west, with the “let eastern Canada freeze in the dark mentality”, were not the great oracles. Who needed to ship oil to the east when our friends to the south would take all we could produce out west? You have the answer today and there is no easy solution. Pipelines cannot be built in a day and the U.S. is able to squeeze more and more out of their wells due to advances in drilling technology—hydraulic fracturing.

The financials, with a weighting of 29.62%, have done the heavy lifting and are up over 19% from the November, 2012 low. But the financial sector is close to major resistance levels and is due for a consolidation or correction.

XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund – Suncor represents 18.60% of this fund.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P/TSX Index posted on January 18, 2013

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG posted on September 18, 2012

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippet is from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Composite Index chart analysis

Leave a reply
TSX Index intermediate uptrend and resistance levels
Chart analysis for the TSX Composite Index showing the intermediate uptrend with resistance levels. RSI and volume are confirming the uptrend.

TSX Composite Index Weekly Chart

The 12,800 level near the February, 2012 intraday high of 12,788 has been a significant support and resistance level back to June, 2011 when it acted as support. Then it was a resistance level in September, 2011. The reversals of roles in an important concept in technical analysis. I  want to see a confirmed close around 12,900 that holds for two days before the 12,800 price zone is declared a new support level.

The TSX Composite Index has the momentum to breakout above near-term resistance of 12,788 which was the February, 2012 intraday high. But; the materials and oil sectors, which have a 45% weighting in the index, are not participating in the advance. These two sector will have to move upward to sustain the intermediate uptrend in the TSX Index to the 13,500 resistance level. And for these two sectors to move, the underlying commodities have to move upward. But, there is no intermediate uptrend for gold, silver, copper, or oil. And, then there is the frustrating Canadian crude differential partly due to pipeline constraints. And, then there is the low North American price for natural gas.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index posted on January 10, 2013.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Precision Drilling (PD:TSX) chart analysis

Leave a reply
Near-term uptrend and major resistance at $9.00
Near-term uptrend for Precision Drilling with major resistance at $9.00.

Precision Drilling 1-Year Bar Chart

Precision Drilling near-term uptrend will meet resistance at $9.00. Unless there is a confirmed break above this level, there is no reason to hold this stock.

The Canadian energy sector which represents 27.88% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index is not participating in the intermediate uptrend in global equities. It is a major reason (along with materials) why the TSX Index is not moving up relative to global equities. The Canadian crude oil discount, caused in part by pipeline constraints, has added to the pain in the energy sector.

Reference the last chart analysis for Precision Drilling posted on July 26, 2012.

Visit the Precision Drilling website for a profile of the company and the latest financial numbers.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) long-term chart analysis

Leave a reply
Russell 2000 long-term uptrend and all-time high
Long-term chart analysis for the Russell 2000 Index on the logarithmic chart. The index and the associated iShares ETF (ticker:IWM) are trading at an all-time high.

Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM) Logarithmic Chart

The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and the ETF proxy iShares Russell 2000 ETF (ticker:IWM) are trading at an all-time high with a long-term uptrend. The fact that smaller capitalization stocks are leading the markets higher is a good sign for the continuation of the uptrend in the overall U.S. stock market. It is now trading around 16% above the November, 2012 low. The 15% to 20% intermediate gain for a stock or index is the critical range to monitor for topping patterns.

The large capitalization stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index and the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker:SPY) must now follow and breakout to new all-time highs. It is worth noting that the performance of both the Index and ETF have been skewed because of the relatively large weighting of Apple — 3.62% and 3.57%.

An educational link to review is Largest ETFs: Top 100 ETFs By Assets.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

U.S. dollar versus yen chart analysis

Leave a reply
U.S. dollar is surging versus the yen
Intermediate and near-term uptrend for the U.S. dollar versus the yen as the Bank of Japan adds to the asset buying program. This is the Japanese version of Operation Twist.

U.S. Dollar versus Yen 3-Year Chart

Bank of Japan has eased the inflation target from 1% to 2% after government demands and most likely will add to the asset buying program. This is the Japanese version of Operation Twist to reinflate the stagnant economy. The net result is a lower yen versus the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. This should help the major exporters like Sony and the Japanese automobile industry.

Are we entering a new period of currency “wars”? Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have implemented variations of quantitative easing to reinflate stagnant economies. Exporting nations cannot tolerate a rising currency as they try to revive stagnant economies. For example, the euro is already in an intermediate uptrend versus other major currencies and this will not be welcomed by a major exporter like Germany. Relative to other euro zone countries, the German export oriented economy prospered in part due to the weak euro.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Index daily bar chart analysis

Leave a reply
TSX Index has a new support level and a chance to test 12,800
TSX Index chart analysis showing the new support level of 12,500 and a chance to test resistance of 12,800.

TSX Index 1-Year Daily Bar Chart

The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis. Yes, I am ready to declare a new support level of 12,500 and a chance for the TSX to test resistance 12,800.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index showing the resistance level of 12,500.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Stock Screener: The first place to start your analysis

Leave a reply

A good stock screener is the first place to start both your fundamental and technical analysis. There are two that I highly recommend.

1. Screens based on fundamental data:

TMX Money

2. Screens based on technical data:

StockCharts.com — Charting Tools

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca