Tag Archives: chart analysis

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) area chart

Intermediate uptrend for WTI with resistance at $97.50 – $98.00 zone
Two year chart for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude showing the intermediate uptrend and resistance levels.

WTI 2-Year Weekly Area Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above two-year weekly area chart (shaded area) for West Texas Intermediate crude shows the near-term and intermediate uptrend. The major trend is down. WTI is trading above the 50-day (blue line) and the 200-day (red line) simple moving averages and the 50-day has crossed above (golden cross) the 200-day moving average. The current resistance level is the $97.50 to $98.00 price zone.  This is the near-term price at which traders take profits. If WTI can breakout above $98.00, the major resistance zone will be the September, 2012 close of $99.01. And the even number of $100 around the intraday high of $100.42 would also be a major resistance level.

Brent crude is the  the world standard (Europe and Asia) for crude oil pricing and West Texas Intermediate is trading at a discount relative to Brent pricing. I have charted the differential in a previous post.  One could argue that WTI is trading in a sweet spot providing a reasonable profit for U.S. based oil companies while not a threat to increased inflation.  It is a different situation for Canada where Western Canadian Select is trading at a $30.00 (rounded) discount to WTI which in turn is trading at a discount of $20.00 to Brent.  There is no need to shed any tears for big Canadian oil companies like Suncor which are still generating positive cash flow at current pricing levels.  But, from an investment perspective; world class oil companies in the U.S. and other countries will attract the investment dollars.  An investment in Canadian oil companies is “dead” money for the intermediate term.  Pipelines cannot be constructed overnight to transport crude. And, then there is the depressed price for North American natural gas.  LNG terminals are expensive and controversial.

There are a number of factors that affect the price of West Texas Intermediate:

  1. Supply and demand balance
  2. U.S. Dollar — WTI normally has an inverse correlation to the value of the U.S. dollar
  3. Supply  — there is currently a glut of oil at the  Cushing, Okla caused in part by pipeline constraints
  4. Supply — surging production out of the Bakken fields in North Dakota and Saskatchewan
  5. Supply — hydraulic fracturing is increasing production
  6. Supply — geopolitical risk associated mostly with the Middle East — one known-known is Iran
  7. Demand — tepid U.S. GDP growth in the the 2% range
  8. Demand — single digit GDP growth of  7% to 8% for China

Reference the last chart analysis for WTI highlighting the price differential versus Brent.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chart analysis

Chart highlights the differential between Brent and WTI
Three year chart for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude highlighting the differential. Both products are in an intermediate uptrend.

WTI and Brent Crude 3-Year chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

Key points from the above chart:

  • WTI and Brent wide differential is a relatively recent development
  • Differential widened starting in 2011
  • Differential for February 5, 2013 was $116.52 – $96.65 = $19.87
  • Price for Western Canadian Select (not shown) on February 5, 2012 was $66.74
  • Brent versus WCS differential was $116.52 – $66.74 = $49.78
  • WTI versus WCS differential was $96.65 – $66.74 = $29.91

Reference a recent chart analysis for the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Divergence: U.S. and Canadian Energy Sectors

A major reason is the Western Canadian Select price differential
A performance chart for XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR (ticker:XLE) and XEG - S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund (ticker:XEG)

XLE and XEG Performance Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

The above chart plots the performance of the U.S. and Canadian energy sectors since the March, 2009 low. I am using two ETFs as a representation of the sectors: XLE – Energy Select Sector SPDR and XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund. XLE gained 118% since the the March, 2009 low compared to a gain of 54% for XEG.

The divergence between the between the U.S. energy sector (XLE) and the Canadian energy sector (XEG) is evident on the above chart since late 2011. The major reason for the divergence is the crude oil price differential for Western Canadian Select caused in part by pipeline constraints.

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund.

Relevant articles picked from the Web

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

iShares S&P/TSX Energy Index (XEG) chart analysis

Near-term uptrend for XEG but the major trend is down
A six month candlestick chart for iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (ticker:XEG) showing the near-term uptrend and resistance levels.  RSI is confirming the neart-term uptrend but the intermediate trend is sideways and the major trend is down.

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (XEG) 6-Month Chart

With a weighting of 27.88% in the S&P/TSX Composite Index, the energy sector holds the key (along with materials—16.88%) for the continuation of the uptrend in the index. But with the underlying commodities, including oil and natural gas, not breaking out to the upside; it is hard to be optimistic. And then there is the frustrating Canadian crude oil differential due in part to pipeline constraints. The differential compared to world oil prices (Brent) is around $50.00 per barrel. Canada imports around 40% of the oil it consumes. So eastern Canada is paying world prices for crude and western Canada is losing $1.5-billion a month because of the differential. The oil visionaries out west, with the “let eastern Canada freeze in the dark mentality”, were not the great oracles. Who needed to ship oil to the east when our friends to the south would take all we could produce out west? You have the answer today and there is no easy solution. Pipelines cannot be built in a day and the U.S. is able to squeeze more and more out of their wells due to advances in drilling technology—hydraulic fracturing.

The financials, with a weighting of 29.62%, have done the heavy lifting and are up over 19% from the November, 2012 low. But the financial sector is close to major resistance levels and is due for a consolidation or correction.

XEG – S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index Fund – Suncor represents 18.60% of this fund.

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P/TSX Index posted on January 18, 2013

Reference the last chart analysis for XEG posted on September 18, 2012

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippet is from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

TSX Composite Index chart analysis

TSX Index intermediate uptrend and resistance levels
Chart analysis for the TSX Composite Index showing the intermediate uptrend  with resistance levels. RSI and volume are confirming the uptrend.

TSX Composite Index Weekly Chart

The 12,800 level near the February, 2012 intraday high of 12,788 has been a significant support and resistance level back to June, 2011 when it acted as support. Then it was a resistance level in September, 2011. The reversals of roles in an important concept in technical analysis. I  want to see a confirmed close around 12,900 that holds for two days before the 12,800 price zone is declared a new support level.

The TSX Composite Index has the momentum to breakout above near-term resistance of 12,788 which was the February, 2012 intraday high. But; the materials and oil sectors, which have a 45% weighting in the index, are not participating in the advance. These two sector will have to move upward to sustain the intermediate uptrend in the TSX Index to the 13,500 resistance level. And for these two sectors to move, the underlying commodities have to move upward. But, there is no intermediate uptrend for gold, silver, copper, or oil. And, then there is the frustrating Canadian crude differential partly due to pipeline constraints. And, then there is the low North American price for natural gas.

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index posted on January 10, 2013.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Precision Drilling (PD:TSX) chart analysis

Near-term uptrend and major resistance at $9.00
Near-term uptrend for Precision Drilling with major resistance at $9.00.

Precision Drilling 1-Year Bar Chart

Precision Drilling near-term uptrend will meet resistance at $9.00. Unless there is a confirmed break above this level, there is no reason to hold this stock.

The Canadian energy sector which represents 27.88% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index is not participating in the intermediate uptrend in global equities. It is a major reason (along with materials) why the TSX Index is not moving up relative to global equities. The Canadian crude oil discount, caused in part by pipeline constraints, has added to the pain in the energy sector.

Reference the last chart analysis for Precision Drilling posted on July 26, 2012.

Visit the Precision Drilling website for a profile of the company and the latest financial numbers.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) long-term chart analysis

Russell 2000 long-term uptrend and all-time high
Long-term chart analysis for the Russell 2000 Index on the logarithmic chart. The index and  the associated iShares ETF (ticker:IWM) are trading at an all-time high.

Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM) Logarithmic Chart

The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and the ETF proxy iShares Russell 2000 ETF (ticker:IWM) are trading at an all-time high with a long-term uptrend. The fact that smaller capitalization stocks are leading the markets higher is a good sign for the continuation of the uptrend in the overall U.S. stock market. It is now trading around 16% above the November, 2012 low. The 15% to 20% intermediate gain for a stock or index is the critical range to monitor for topping patterns.

The large capitalization stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index and the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker:SPY) must now follow and breakout to new all-time highs. It is worth noting that the performance of both the Index and ETF have been skewed because of the relatively large weighting of Apple — 3.62% and 3.57%.

An educational link to review is Largest ETFs: Top 100 ETFs By Assets.

______________________________

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2013 TradeOnline.ca