Dundee Real Estate Investment Trust in an uptrend
Reference the previous chart analysis for Dundee REIT.
Update July 21, 2011: Dundee grabs office buildings
Update January 24, 2012: ScotiaPlaza sale should provide boost to REITs
The most important concept in technical analysis is the trend: you always trade in the direction of the trend. The near-term trend for BMO, last three weeks, is up and is defined by the 10 day simple moving average (SMA) which is above both the 20 day and 40 day averages. The intermediate trend, last six months, is sideways with support at $58 and resistance at $62.
This brings up the another important concept in technical analysis — support and resistance. Take a look at the chart. BMO could not break $62 on three attempts over the last six months. Both the bulls and the bears have memories of this price point. BMO will meet technical resistance at $62 in this rally.
The three confirming indicators:
The shaven head ( stock closed at the high for the day) white candlestick for Thursday was positive for the bulls.
Bank of Montreal was last featured on tradeonline.ca on January 7, 2011
Note: This analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years.
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It shows that the rally could not be maintained. The stock opened at $40.82, above the close for the previous day’s bullish white candlestick, which was a strong opening. But the bulls could not maintain the push as the stock rallied to a high of $41.59 where there was selling pressure and the stock closed at $40.87: this was not a good day for the bulls.
The trend is the most important concept in technical analysis. The intermediate trend (3 weeks to 3 months) is sideways and the near-term trend (within the last 3 weeks) is up. What we are trying to establish in this analysis is the likelihood of the near-term trend continuing upwards. Today, there is a hint of caution which you can see pictorially in the shooting star candlestick pattern.
Another important concept in technical analysis is support and resistance. On Monday, Shoppers Drug Mart closed above resistance at $40. This has been resistance for the last four months. The $40 price point reverses rolls and is now support for this stock. A close below $40 would be very negative for the near-term trend for Shoppers.
Technical analysis can be adapted to any time frame. Today, we continue our analysis of the near-term trend (less than two or three weeks) for the TSX.
The index is still in a consolidation phase with resistance at 13,500 and support at 13,200. If the index breaks 13,200 on the downside, the major support level is then 13,000.
What did today’s candlestick reveal?
It was a small red candlestick with no major negative implications when viewed on its own. When viewed in relation to the previous day’s tall white candlestick, it is classed as a harami cross ( inside day) formation. In other words, the price movement was within the range of the previous day’s action. It just confirms the consolidation phase (sideways) for the TSX and was not a positive pattern after a tall white candlestick.
The index must break and hold above 13,500 to confirm a new upleg in the market.
The TSX looks a little tired at this stage . Be cautious about adding to long positions.
The chart snippet above was snipped from this 6-month live chart. This large chart will give you a better overall view of the trend and includes other customized indicators.