Tag Archives: oil

World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance

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The following chart provides a graphical perspective on the liquid fuels production and consumption balance. With all the daily bantering on the networks, the chart provides a base case for a general overview of the imbalance. You can click on the link below the chart for a detailed review of the data and assumptions used in the construction of the chart. Draw your own conclusions and trade accordingly.

Global oil inventories are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.6 million b/d in 2016 and by an additional 0.6 million b/d in 2017. These inventory builds are larger than previously expected, delaying the rebalancing of the oil market and contributing to lower forecast oil prices. Compared with last month's STEO, EIA has revised forecast supply growth higher for 2016 and revised forecast demand growth lower for both 2016 and 2017. Higher 2016 supply in this month's STEO is based on indications that production is more resilient to lower prices than previously expected. Notably, revisions to historical Russian data, which raised the baseline for Russian production, carry through much of the forecast. Additionally, lower expectations for global economic growth contributed to a reduction in the oil demand forecast.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

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“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2016 TradeOnline.ca

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iShares (XEG) S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF

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Daily chart of XEG showing the near-term uptrend and the breakout above the 10.00 resistance level. Momentum indicators and volume are confirming the move. But, the major trend and the intermediate trend are both down as you can see on the weekly chart which is below this one.

XEG 6-Month Daily Chart showing near-term uptrend

XEG 6-Month Daily Chart

The iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF seeks to provide long-term capital growth by replicating, to the extent possible, the performance of the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, net of expenses.

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Weekly chart for XEG showing that the major trend and the intermediate trend are both down. XEG will meet heavy resistance around 11 which is near the 40-week moving average.

XEG 3-Year Weekly Chart

XEG 3-Year Weekly Chart

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“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2016 TradeOnline.ca

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West Texas Intermediate closes below $38 a barrel

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West Texas Intermediate 6-Month Daily Chart showing the close below $38 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate 6-Month Daily Chart

December 2, 2015: Reference the last chart analysis for West Texas Intermediate.

October 26, 2015: High probability WTI will test the major support zone

September 15, 2015: Bearish descending triangle forming on the daily chart

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“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca

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Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLE) chart analysis

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XLE ETF daily chart showing major downtrend
Daily chart for XLE showing the failure to hold the breakout at 83.

XLE Daily Chart

Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund

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“Stay with the trend until it ends.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca

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iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF chart analysis

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XEG ETF weekly chart showing major downtrend
Weekly chart for XEG ETF showing the major downtrend and the failure to hold the breakout at 15.

XEG ETF 3-Year Weekly Chart

Weekly chart for XEG ETF showing the major downtrend and the failure to hold the breakout at 15. Near-term trend is down. If XEG cannot hold 14, the next support level is 13.

http://ca.ishares.com/content/en_ca/repository/resource/fact_sheet/FFS_XEG_CA46428C1005_EN_CA.PDF

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XEG ETS daily chart showing the support and resistance levels
XEG ETF daily chart showing the support and resistance levels.

XEG ETF Daily Chart

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“Stay with the trend until it ends.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca

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Natural gas production and rig count

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Will the same inverse relationship hold for WTI crude oil?

Chart showing the relationship between natural gas production and rig count.

This Chart Shows Why the Number of Oil Rigs May Not Matter Anymore.

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“We are all students of the market.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca

Western Canadian Select price differential

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Canadian oil exports to the U.S. and the price differential for Western Canadian Select compared to West Texas Intermediate.

CALGARY—In the escalating war of attrition among top oil-producing nations, Canada’s biggest oil-sands mines have a message for the market: Don’t look to us to cut production………..read more……….

Western Canadian Select is one of North America’s largest heavy crude oil streams.[1] It is a heavy blended crude oil composed mostly of bitumen blended with sweet synthetic and condensate diluents and 25[2] existing streams of both conventional and unconventional[2][3] Alberta heavy crude oils at the Husky blending terminal in Hardisty,Alberta (CAPP 2012).……..read more……….

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“Always trade in the direction of the major trend”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca

Brent Crude 3-Year weekly chart

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Major psychological support level for Brent is 50 Next? 40
Major support level for brent is 50

Brent 3-Year Weekly Chart

The major trend is down and the major psychological support level is 50. Barring a major geopolitical event, there is a high probability this level will not hold. I continue to be short and will keep the short position until the charts indicate a reversal of the downtrend.

Cheap Oil’s Dark Shadow

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“The pressure starts when you execute the trade.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2015 TradeOnline.ca