Tag Archives: retracement

TSX Index weekly chart

TSX Fibonacci retracements for reference points

Fibonacci retracements points for the TSX Index

TSX Index 3-Year Weekly Chart

Intermediate downtrend for the TSX Index. Reference the last chart analysis.

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“Keep it Simple!”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

S&P 500 chart analysis

Major uptrend still in effect for the S&P 500. But how long more will it last?
S&P 500 chart analysis showing the trendline.

S&P 500 5-Year Weekly Chart

There is a high probability the S&P 500 will test the trendline which is the 200-day simple moving average.

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“The trend is your friend until it ends.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

S&P 500 Index candlestick chart analysis

Near-term trend is down for the S&P 500 Index
Candlestick chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index showing support and resistance levels.

S&P 500 Index 3 Year Weekly Chart

Reference the last chart analysis for the S&P 500 Index based on the daily chart.

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Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Index

Retracement zone if the S&P 500 cannot hold support
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index showing the support zone and the retracement zone.  The near-term trend is down and the intermediate trend is up.

S&P 500 Index 6 Month Daily chart

What is the trend? That is the most important point to determine in technical analysis and you always trade in the direction of the trend. The major trend is up, the intermediate trend is up and the near-term trend is down. The S&P 500 Index has gained around 16% from the June low for the current intermediate uptrend. Anytime an index or stock has gained around 20%, reversal signals on the charts take on greater significance. Trading is all about the assessing the probabilities.

The intermediate uptrend is still intact but the near-term downtrend must stop at the intermediate support zone. This support zone is around 1,420 which was a resistance point in the uptrend. The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis. Also, the support zone is around the 50-day simple moving average which is always an important input in automated trading systems. And, the support zone is at the intersection of the upward sloping trendline.

The retracement zone is based on the 50% retracement of the move which started in June.  Also, the retracement zone is near the 200-day simple moving average which is also an important input in automated trading systems.

In summary, always trade in the direction of the the intermediate trend until there is a confirmed break of the trendline. Traders use different time and percent levels for confirmation numbers.

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Note: The above chart analysis is valid as of the publication date. To review current charts click on Home or perform a search. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Dow Jones Industrial Average chart analysis

Projected retracement zone if the Dow fails to hold 13,000
Dow Jones Industrial Average chart analysis showing the projected retracement zone if the index cannot hold 13,000.

Dow Index Weekly Chart

Reference my last chart analysis for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Relevant articles picked from the Web:

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2012 TradeOnline.ca

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) chart analysis

Critical retracement level for (TSX:CNQ)

Candlestick chart analysis for Canadian Natural Resources showing the critical retracement level of 66%

(CNQ:TSX) Daily Chart

Key points from the chart:

  • Intermediate trend is down.
  • Near-term trend is down.
  • Critical support is $38.00.
  • If it does not hold $38.00, CNQ could retrace the whole prior move to $32.00.

Reference the updated chart analysis for CNQ published on November 4, 2011.

Reference the previous analysis for CNQ.

Reference the website for Canadian Natural Resources to review the fundamental data.

 

Putting the March TSX correction in perspective

TSX decline to 13,200 represented a minimum retracement level of 34.4%

There are no firm rules when an index or stock retraces a prior move. The minimum retracement level would be 33%  and the maximum would be 66%.  If  the correction passes the 66% level, there is a high probability the stock or index will retrace the prior move.

Weekly candlestick chart of the TSX showing the March correction which represented a retracement of 34.3% of the  28.8% (3200 points) gain from the July low of 13,200 to the March 7 high of 14,300

S&P/TSX 1-Year Weekly Chart

The most important points for the above TSX chart analysis are:

  • The 50-day moving average is a good approximation of the trend line.
  • The major trend ( longer than six months) is up.
  • The intermediate trend ( three weeks to three months) is up.
  • The near-term trend ( less than three weeks) is now up.
  • The March correction was a 34.3% retracement of the July to March upswing.
  • The March correction was -7.7%.
  • The support level of  13,500 held on the pullback.

You can reference recent chart analysis of the S&P/TSX index to see where the index made an assault on the 13, 500 level.  Then there was the break and the run to the March high.

This two-year annotated candlestick chart of the TSX makes one statement: it was a good run.

Maintain a neutral trading strategy at this  juncture in the S&P/TSX index with alerts at the 14,200 and the 13,800 levels.  A  close above 14,200 would be a possible indicator to add to long positions as the index attempts a break through the recent high of 14,300.  A close below 13,800 would be a possible indicator to liquidate some long positions as you monitor major support at 13,500.

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.