High probability TSX Index will test support of 12,900

Technical analysis is all about evaluating probabilities. There are no sure things when you evaluate a chart: just guideposts. In the near-term, the above chart indicates a high probability that the TSX Index will test support of 12,900. And there is a low probability that the index will break resistance of 13,500.

Here are the negative points from the above chart:

1. Tall shaven head and bottom candlestick on the chart today
2. The 10-Day SMA crossed below the 20-Day SMA
3. The volume was average today but volume does not have to confirm a downtrend
4. RSI is confirming the downtrend
5. Notice the divergence when RSI did not confirm the November high

Reference the last chart analysis for the TSX Index showing the performance by sectors.

Reference the last chart analysis for copper which has a major impact on the materials sector.

Reference the breakout for the TSX above resistance on October 18, 2013. This is now the support zone on the above chart. The reversal of roles is an important concept in technical analysis.

Reference the importance of the 12,900 support zone which was a a area of consolidation back to early 2012.

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