Tag Archives: Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis: TSX Index monthly logarithmic chart

TSX Index long-term chart to ponder the big picture

TSX Index chart analysis using the monthly logarithmic chart with major support and crossovers

TSX Index Monthly Logarithmic Chart

I analyze the long-term charts of the major indexes and proceed to the near-term charts. Reference the last chart analysis of the TSX Index based on the weekly chart.

When you invest, you are playing the odds: there is never a certain win in the markets.  At this stage, the odds of a major downside correction outweigh the upside.  It is prudent to stay on the sidelines with an above average cash position.

Relevant articles from the web:

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The main purpose of TradeOnline.ca is a starting point for your own chart analysis. Technical analysis serves as a guidepost in your daily investment analysis and is used in conjunction with fundamental analysis. There is no magic formula for making profits when you trade online in the stock market. We are all students of the market, and one should never give up reviewing and learning the basics. Visit the Advanced Chart Settings and customize BigCharts so you can review different time periods.

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2011 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: TSX Index candlestick chart

TSX Index in a consolidation range

TSX Index candlestick chart analysis showing a consolidation range

TSX Index Weekly Chart

The following are the key points from the above chart analysis:

  • The near-term trend is sideways.
  • Trading in a consolidation range.
  • Support is 12,000.
  • Resistance is 12,500.
  • Reference the Oct 3 post regarding major support of 11,000.
  • I explained the double top reversal pattern in the June 18 post.
  • Another post explaining the double top reversal pattern on May 6.
  • The April 24 post warned of the double top.
  • The possibility of a double top was raised in the April 14 post.

What is a reasonable trading strategy at this point in the market?

The TSX Index is trading in a near-term consolidation range as indicated on the chart. A neutral trading strategy with an above average cash position would be appropriate. A confirmed break (+2% for two days) above the 12,500 resistance level would be a reason to add cautiously to long positions. A confirmed break below support of 12,000 would be a reason to liquidate longs.

Past posts for the TSX Index provide continuity in the analysis:

Reference the last chart analysis dated Nov 4 for the TSX Index. This chart identified the harami cross candlestick pattern with a tweezers top. You can also review the TSX Index Category for a sequential listing of charts.

The following current articles are picks from the web:

Financial Post article dated Nov 12, 2011: Does anyone really want us to be financially savvy?

Financial Post article dated Nov 11, 2011: Mr. Market’s mood is picking up

Financial Post article dated Nov 11, 2011: Ride volatility with managed futures

Financial Post article dated Nov17, 2011: Run from debt to cash sparks sell off

______________________________

The main purpose of TradeOnline.ca is a starting point for your own chart analysis. Technical analysis serves as a guidepost in your daily investment analysis and is used in conjunction with fundamental analysis. There is no magic formula for making profits when you trade online in the stock market. We are all students of the market, and one should never give up reviewing and learning the basics. Visit the Advanced Chart Settings and customize BigCharts so you can review different time periods.

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2011 TradeOnline.ca

Technical analysis for the TSX index

Critical support levels for the TSX Index

Technical analysis for the TSX Index using a three year candlestick chart highlighting major support and resistance levels

TSX Index Three-Year Weekly Candlestick Chart

The support level of 11,000 to 10,900 is based on a Fibonacci Retracement of 50% of the move from the March, 2009 low of 7500 to the April, 2011 high of 14,300. And it is also near the July, 2010 low of 11,065. This is a major support level!

The final support level of 10,000 is based on a Fibonacci Retracement of 61.8% of the move from the March, 2009 low of 7500 to the April, 2011 high of 14,300.

Please reference the previous chart analysis for the TSX Index.

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2011 TradeOnline.ca

Royal Bank (RY:TSX) chart analysis

Can the price close above the downward sloping trendline?
Royal Banks six-month candlestick chart analysis showing a downward sloping trendline indicated by the 40 day simple moving average.  Can the price break the trendline?

Royal Bank six-Month Candlestick Chart

Has the stock bottomed at the $44.00 level? In the above chart, the stock price for the Royal Bank declined 27% from an April high of $61.00 to a September low of $44.50 over a six month period. At this point, based on the extent of the decline (over 20%) and the time period (over six months), the odds increase that the stock has bottomed. Also, the low of $44.50 is a 50% retracement of the move from the February, 2009 low of $26.00 (view the 3-year weekly chart) to the high of $62.00 in May, 2010. Chart patterns that indicate a bottom take on more significance: it is all about having the odds in your favor. A candlestick pattern called a hammer is highlighted on the above chart. This pattern indicates a bottom and is followed by a bullish engulfing candlestick.

The key point for this chart analysis of the Royal Bank is that the price must make a significant close above the downward sloping trendline. This will be a confirming factor that the downtrend has ended: this applies to all stocks and indexes. My definition of significant is a 2% penetration of the trendline that holds for at least two days. This will indicate the start of a new uptrend or the start of a consolidation phase.

The next step is to monitor the confirming indicators of volume, on balance volume (OBV) and RSI. The volume should increase with the price move or the move is suspect. Volume measures the force behind the uptrend: an uptrend cannot be maintained without above average volume. The next confirming indicator is OBV and it must confirm the uptrend by trending higher. The last confirming indicator is RSI which must move above 50 and move in the direction of the uptrend.

It is always a good idea to have a grasp of the fundamentals for a company. The following is a summary of the bank earnings from Globe Investor: In order of reporting date, here is the final rundown for the latest earnings from the Canadian banks.

Please visit RBC Investor Relations for an overview of the fundamentals for this bank.

Globe and Mail article dated Oct 14, 2011: Hedge funds take aim at Canadian banks

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

Technical analysis of the TSX Index

There were many early indicators for the 19.6% correction in the TSX Index

Techncial analysis using a candlestick chart for the TSX Index

Where is the bottom for the TSX Index?

Reference my March 13, 2011 post: TSX at an advanced stage in this intermediate swing

Review the archive of my posts for more of the early indicators. Technical analysis is about risk management.

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 Index

Critical support level for the S&P Index at 1,100

S&P Index candlestick chart with support levels and a downward trend in the RSI

S&P 500 Index Three-Year Candlestick Chart

The S&P 500 Index is in an intermediate downtrend: cash is still king.

Reference the last analysis of the S&P 500 Index which was a more positive chart.

______________________________

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2011 TradeOnline.ca

Technical Analysis: NASDAQ candlestick chart

Bullish shaven head candlestick: A 6.1% move the week of June 27

Candlestick chart for the NASDAQ index showing the bullish shaven head candlestick chart and major support level

Three-Year Weekly Candlestick Chart

A short-term bounce and back to a lateral trading range? Or the start of a new uptrend?

The tall bullish shaven head candlestick is a graphical representation of the major move of 6.1% for the week of  June 27, 2011: it doesn’t get much better than this for a weekly gain in a major index.  The NASDAQ is in a good position for a test of major resistance of  2,880.  A convincing two-day close of around 2,940, would indicate an intermediate target of 3,160.

Reference the previous candlestick chart for the NASDAQ

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Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The chart snippets are from BigCharts.com which I recommend and have used for fifteen years. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.