13,500 is an area of major resistance for TSX.
TSX At Midday on Jan 18, 2011
It broke this level at midday. Will it hold above this level today, and how will it react tomorrow at the open? These are important questions as one decides to commit more money to the market.
The chart at the right is a snippet of the daily candlestick chart for the TSX. The red line is the 40-day moving average, the blue line is the 20-day moving average and the yellow line is the 10-day moving average. I use these three averages on the 6-month and 1-year charts with daily candlesticks. Each candlestick represents a day of price action.
Update: Market Close
The TSX is in good shape at this stage as the market closed at 13,559 near the high of the day:
- The price is above all three short-term moving averages — 10-day, 20-day and 40-day.
- The 10-day moving average has not crossed below the 20-day average.
- The market closed on a nice white candlestick — opened low and closed on a high.
An important aspect of support and resistance is whenever resistance is penetrated — 13,500 in this case — it reverses its role and now becomes support. So, is 13,500 a new support level for the TSX? Yes, it is now support but the level has not been tested and the level has only been broken for one day.
Where will the market open tomorrow?
What is the major trend for the TSX?
That is the first point in technical analysis: you cannot invest against the trend. Take a look at the current 3-year weekly chart for the TSX.
It is evident that the major trend — being in effect for at least six months — is up. Over the last five months (August – January), the 50-day moving average has defined the trend.
TSX Weekly Chart - Jan 14.11
This week, the 50-day average acted as support on a pullback. Another point to note on the 3-year chart is the area of major resistance which is currently 13,500. Major support on this chart would be 13,000.
The snippet of the chart at the right highlights the trend line and the areas of major support and major resistance. Trend line, support and resistance are important concepts in technical analysis. Future posts will explain these concepts in detail.
The next post will focus on the one-year chart with daily candlesticks (the price action for one day). This will give us a better picture of the intermediate (three weeks to three months) and near-term (less than two or three weeks) trends.
What are the appropriate trading strategies based on this 3-year chart:
- The TSX is in a consolidation phase. Do not add to long positions
- A close above 13,500 would would be a signal to add to long positions.
- A close below 13,000 would be a signal to liquidate some long positions.
- A close below 13,000 may also be a signal for some experienced traders to take short positions.
Note: Each candlestick on the chart represents one week of price action.
Note: The above analysis is for educational purposes. You should conduct your own analysis or contact your financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Short-term target is $62.00.
BMO is in a consolidation phase: the intermediate trend is sideways. The first support level is $58 and major support is $56 for Bank of Montreal. The stock will meet resistance at $62.00 with major resistance at $64.00.
Bank of Montreal - Weekly Chart
Take a look at the three year chart.
Take a look at the one year chart.