Tag Archives: WTI

U.S. oil rig count and WTI spot price

The U.S. oil-directed rig count totaled nearly 1,600 rigs in the fall of 2014. However, the decline in oil prices over the past 18 months has reduced drilling activity, with just 413 rigs operating as of February 19, 2016

Low oil prices and reduced capital expenditure for drilling new wells have been reflected in declining crude oil production in the United States since May 2015, despite the continuing increase in initial production rates of the new wells that were still being drilled and completed. Oil production from new wells has so far been able to keep U.S. crude oil production from falling significantly below its level in late 2014. However, EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that U.S. oil production will decline over the next two years, falling to 8.7 million b/d in 2016 and to 8.2 million b/d in 2017.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25472

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“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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Hydraulic fracturing accounts for about half of U.S. oil production

Even though hydraulic fracturing has been in use for more than six decades, it has only recently been used to produce a significant portion of crude oil in the United States. This technique, often used in combination with horizontal drilling, has allowed the United States to increase its oil production faster than at any time in its history. Based on the most recent available data from states, EIA estimates that oil production from hydraulically fractured wells now makes up about half of total U.S. crude oil production.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25372

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2016 TradeOnline.ca

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World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance

The following chart provides a graphical perspective on the liquid fuels production and consumption balance. With all the daily bantering on the networks, the chart provides a base case for a general overview of the imbalance. You can click on the link below the chart for a detailed review of the data and assumptions used in the construction of the chart. Draw your own conclusions and trade accordingly.

Global oil inventories are forecast to increase by an annual average of 1.6 million b/d in 2016 and by an additional 0.6 million b/d in 2017. These inventory builds are larger than previously expected, delaying the rebalancing of the oil market and contributing to lower forecast oil prices. Compared with last month's STEO, EIA has revised forecast supply growth higher for 2016 and revised forecast demand growth lower for both 2016 and 2017. Higher 2016 supply in this month's STEO is based on indications that production is more resilient to lower prices than previously expected. Notably, revisions to historical Russian data, which raised the baseline for Russian production, carry through much of the forecast. Additionally, lower expectations for global economic growth contributed to a reduction in the oil demand forecast.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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West Texas Intermediate will test major support at $35

The spigots are wide open. The major trend is down, the intermediate trend is down and the near-term trend just turned down. WTI will test major support at $35. The near-term downtrend in the U.S. dollar should be a plus for WTI but right now traders are concentrating on supply news out of the Middle East.

WTI 3-Year Weekly chart

WTI 3-Year Weekly chart

Reference my post from March, 29, 2016 showing the major downtrend defined by the 200-day moving average.

Reference my post from March 15, 2016 for the support levels below 40.

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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West Texas Intermediate 2-year chart

40-Week (200-Day) moving average defines the major downtrend and major resistance

West Texas Intermediate 2-Year Weekly chart

West Texas Intermediate 2-Year Weekly chart

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2016 TradeOnline.ca

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WTI resistance at the 200-day moving average

Near-term uptrend with resistance at 42 and support at 40. But, the major trend is down as represented by the 200-day moving average. A break below 40 would indicate a test at 39.  A break below 39 indicates a major test at 35. Reference the link below the chart.

West Texas Intermediate 6-Month Daily Chart

West Texas Intermediate 6-Month Daily Chart

Reference my post from March 15, 2016 for the support levels below 40.

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

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West Texas Intermediate daily chart – 35 is major support

The near-term uptrend for WTI failed at 39 so this is the current reference point for the resistance level. WTI dropped 1.74% today to close at 36.72. The 36 level is a tentative support level that would trigger sell orders if crude breaks below this point. But, the major support level is 35. A Break below 35 would trigger heavy selling and a test of the February lows would come into play.

West Texas Intermediate 5-Month Daily Chart showing major support at 35

West Texas Intermediate 5-Month Daily Chart

Reference my chart analysis for WTI on March 2, 2016 when 35 was major resistance for the near-term uptrend. Because of the reversal of roles, 35 is now major support.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate

______________________________

“Technical Analysis is about probabilities.”

Note: Click on HOME for updated postings. This technical analysis is for educational purposes so you can learn to trade online using candlestick charts and other technical indicators including volume, moving averages and oscillators. Please conduct your own chart analysis or consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stock or index.

© 2016 TradeOnline.ca

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