Tag Archives: Canada

Overview of the foreign takeover of Canada’s mining giants over the last 50 years

Published January 9, 2026

This history is often described by economists and nationalists as the “Hollowing Out of Corporate Canada.”

The Thesis: From “Builder” to “Branch”

Fifty years ago, Canada didn’t just dig rocks; it built the global companies that managed them. Toronto and Vancouver were the command centers of the global mining industry. Today, while the mines are still here (they can’t move), the decisions are largely made in Switzerland (Glencore), Brazil (Vale), London (Rio Tinto), and Australia (BHP).


Era 1: The Golden Age of Canadian Giants (1970s – 2005)

In this era, Canadian companies were the predators, not the prey. They aggressively acquired assets globally.

  • The Big Four: The industry was dominated by four massive, Canadian-headquartered titans:
    1. Inco (International Nickel Company): Based in Toronto, it controlled the global nickel market from Sudbury, Ontario.
    2. Falconbridge: Another nickel/copper giant, Inco’s fierce rival, also based in Toronto.
    3. Noranda: A massive diversified miner and smelter (Quebec roots) that was a crown jewel of Canadian industry.
    4. Alcan (Aluminum Company of Canada): Based in Montreal, it was the second-largest aluminum producer in the world.
  • The Status Quo: These companies developed world-leading technology (like Inco’s flash smelting) and their CEOs were powerful figures in Canadian public policy.

Era 2: The “Great Exodus” (2005 – 2007)

In a span of just 24 months, Canada lost almost its entire top tier of mining companies to foreign buyouts. This period effectively ended Canada’s reign as a global mining manager.

  • 2006: The Loss of Falconbridge & Noranda
    • The Deal: After a complicated bidding war, Xstrata (a Swiss-Anglo giant) acquired Falconbridge (which had just merged with Noranda) for $18 billion.
    • The Result: One of Canada’s oldest mining names disappeared into a Swiss conglomerate (which later merged with Glencore).
  • 2006: The Loss of Inco
    • The Deal: In a shock to national pride, Inco was acquired by Vale (CVRD) of Brazil for $19 billion.
    • The Context: Inco had tried to merge with Falconbridge to create a “Canadian Super-Miner” to fight off foreign takeovers, but the deal failed. Vale swooped in, and the “Sudbury Basin” effectively became a Brazilian outpost.
  • 2007: The Loss of Alcan
    • The Deal: Rio Tinto (UK/Australia) bought Alcan for $38 billion.
    • The Result: It was renamed “Rio Tinto Alcan.” While the HQ technically stayed in Montreal for the aluminum division, the strategic power shifted to London.

Why did this happen?

The Canadian government (under Stephen Harper) approved these deals under the Investment Canada Act, declaring they were a “net benefit” to Canada. Critics argued it stripped Canada of its head offices, R&D departments, and high-paying legal/financial service jobs.


Era 3: The “Critical Minerals” Pivot & The Last Stand (2008 – 2024)

After the 2006 exodus, the government realized it had made a mistake. The narrative shifted from “free market” to “strategic protectionism,” especially regarding Potash and Critical Minerals.

  • 2010: The BHP-PotashCorp Block
    • A pivotal moment. BHP Billiton (Australia) tried to buy PotashCorp (Saskatchewan) for $40 billion.
    • The Twist: The federal government blocked the deal—the first time it had ever used the “Net Benefit” test to stop a major takeover. They realized losing the world’s largest fertilizer company was a bridge too far. (PotashCorp eventually merged with Agrium to form Nutrien, keeping it Canadian).
  • 2023-2024: The Teck Resources Saga
    • Teck Resources was the “Last Mohican”—the last major diversified miner left in Canada.
    • The Glencore Raid: In 2023, Glencore launched a hostile takeover bid for the entire company.
    • The Defense: The Canadian government and the Keevil family (who controlled Teck’s voting shares) pushed back, citing “Critical Minerals” security.
    • The Compromise (The Split): Teck agreed to sell only its coal assets (Elk Valley) to Glencore (completed mid-2024), keeping the “green metals” (Copper/Zinc) as a standalone Canadian company… until late 2025.

Era 4: The “Merger of Equals” Era (2025 – Present)

The definition of “Takeover” has changed. Foreign companies now propose “Mergers” to avoid the political heat of a “Takeover.”

  • Late 2025: The Anglo-Teck Merger
    • In September 2025, Teck Resources and Anglo American announced a $70B merger.
    • The Spin: They call it a “merger of equals” with a headquarters in Canada, but Anglo shareholders own ~62% of the company. It effectively marks the end of Teck as a purely independent Canadian entity, though it survives in name.
  • 2025-2026: The New Reality
    • Today, “Canadian Mining” is largely composed of Mid-Tier companies (like Agnico Eagle, First Quantum, Lundin). The “Global Majors” are almost entirely foreign-owned.

Summary Table

CompanyAcquired ByCountry of BuyerYearPrice
Noranda / FalconbridgeXstrata (now Glencore)Switzerland/UK2006~$18B
IncoValeBrazil2006~$19B
AlcanRio TintoUK/Australia2007~$38B
Teck (Coal Division)GlencoreSwitzerland2024~$9B
Teck (Metals Division)Anglo American (Merger)UK2025~$70B (Deal value)

Key Takeaway:

The last 50 years was a transition from “Owners” to “Operators.” Canada is still a mining superpower in terms of geology and production, but it is no longer a superpower in terms of capital and control.

Canada reports biggest population decline on record

Published December 18, 2025

Preliminary demographic estimates indicate that Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 people (-0.2%) over the third quarter of 2025, standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025.

Canada population decline

Canada reports biggest population decline on record – The Globe and Mail

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251217/dq251217b-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=4098-1&indgeo=0

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio for S&P 500 and TSX

Published December 12, 2025

Analysis: This was published in the The Globe and Mail. One of the metrics that shows the relative overvaluation of the two indexes.

Price to sales ratio for the S&P 500 and the TSX indexes

This was the year when everyone, everywhere, made money. In fact, if you had celebrated New Year’s Day 2025 by downing a few cocktails, throwing darts at a map of the world and then buying stocks wherever they landed, chances are you would have done magnificently.

This year was easy for investors. Don’t expect a replay in 2026 – The Globe and Mail

Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase in July

Published September 16, 2025

Analysis: Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.4% in August, after increasing 2.5% in each of the previous three months. In August, prices for meat rose 7.2% year over year, following a 4.7% increase in July. Higher prices for fresh or frozen beef (+12.7%) and processed meat (+5.3%) put upward pressure on the index in August. Inflation is smoldering in the background and will get worst.

Here is a 5-year chart:

Canadian inflation chart

Canadian inflation by product group

The Daily — Consumer Price Index, August 2025

According to advance estimates from Statistics Canada, Canada’s real GDP was essentially flat in the second quarter of 2025 (April-June), a notable slowdown from the 2.2% annualized growth seen in the first quarter.

Published August 28, 2025

Canada’s economy saw a contraction in the second quarter of 2025, following a period of modest growth earlier in the year. The latest data and forecasts point to a challenging economic environment driven by global trade uncertainty.

Recent GDP Data (Q2 2025)

  • Real GDP Growth Rate: According to advance estimates from Statistics Canada, real GDP was essentially unchanged in the second quarter of 2025 after a sharp increase in the first quarter. Monthly data showed a decline in GDP in both April and May, followed by a slight rebound in June.
  • Key Factors: The contraction was primarily driven by a sharp drop in exports, particularly to the United States. This was a direct result of trade activity being pulled forward into the first quarter to front-load shipments in anticipation of new tariffs. Sectors like manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction saw a decline, while services were largely flat.

Outlook and Forecast

The outlook for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 is cautious, with many economists predicting a period of very slow growth or even a mild recession.

  • Bank of Canada: The Bank of Canada, in its July 2025 Monetary Policy Report, noted that while the economy has shown some resilience, GDP is estimated to have contracted in the second quarter. The Bank’s forecast is for modest growth in the second half of 2025, but it acknowledges that the unpredictable nature of global trade policy poses a significant risk.
  • Fiscal Forecasts: The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s June 2025 report anticipated that real GDP would be flat in the second quarter, largely due to the impact of tariffs.
  • General Consensus: The general consensus among major Canadian banks and other forecasters is that the economy will continue to face headwinds. A survey by the Bank of Canada found that a significant portion of market participants believe there is a notable probability of a recession in the next 12 months.

Canada’s economic performance has been a mixed bag recently, with the latest data and forecasts pointing to a period of slow or flat growth after a surprisingly strong start to the year.

Recent GDP Data

  • Real GDP Growth Rate: According to advance estimates from Statistics Canada, Canada’s real GDP was essentially flat in the second quarter of 2025 (April-June), a notable slowdown from the 2.2% annualized growth seen in the first quarter.
  • Monthly Breakdown: The flat quarterly result was a combination of monthly declines in April and May, followed by a small rebound in June. This indicates a loss of momentum in the middle of the year.

Key Factors and Industry Performance

  • Exports and Trade: The slowdown in the second quarter was largely a result of trade-related issues. Exports, particularly to the United States, fell sharply after a pre-tariff-related surge in the first quarter. This was a key drag on the economy.
  • Goods vs. Services: The goods-producing sector, including manufacturing and mining, saw declines, while the services sector remained relatively flat.
  • Household Spending: Consumer spending has held up better than expected, and residential investment has shown some signs of bouncing back. However, the overall consumer environment is seen as cautious.

Outlook and Forecast

The outlook for the Canadian economy remains uncertain, with a wide range of forecasts from different institutions.

  • Bank of Canada: The Bank of Canada has noted the volatility and uncertainty surrounding global trade. In its recent reports, the Bank acknowledges the slowdown in economic activity but continues to project a gradual path to recovery, assuming trade tensions do not escalate significantly.
  • Private Sector Forecasts: Many economists are forecasting a period of weak growth for the rest of 2025. Some anticipate growth of less than 1% for the year as a whole, while others see a risk of a mild recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The primary risks to the outlook are a further increase in global trade tensions and a weaker-than-expected U.S. economy, as the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner.

BCE breakout on the daily candlestick chart

Published July 13, 2025

BCE daily candlestick chart

But proceed with caution. Here is the 4-year weekly chart showing the major downtrend:

BCE 4-year weekly chart

https://www.bce.ca/investors/overview

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Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend

Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes.

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