The U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June)

Published August 28, 2025

The most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that the U.S. economy’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a strong rate in the second quarter of 2025.

Key Figures (Q2 2025)

  • Real GDP Growth Rate: The U.S. real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June). This was an upward revision from the initial estimate of 3.0% and represents a significant rebound from the 0.5% decrease in the first quarter of the year.
  • Nominal GDP: The nominal, or current-dollar, GDP for the second quarter was $30.33 trillion.

Key Drivers of Growth

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected:

  • Increased Consumer Spending: An acceleration in personal consumption expenditures was a major factor, with Americans spending more on both goods and services.
  • Decreased Imports: A notable downturn in imports contributed to the GDP increase, as imports are a subtraction in the GDP calculation. This was partly a result of businesses and consumers having stockpiled goods in the first quarter in anticipation of new tariffs.

Outlook and Forecast

While the second quarter saw robust growth, the outlook for the rest of 2025 and 2026 is somewhat mixed, with many forecasters predicting a slowdown.

  • Forecasts: According to forecasts from organizations like the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and EY, real GDP growth is expected to decelerate in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. This is largely due to the anticipated impact of trade barriers and a cautious consumer environment.
  • GDPNow: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects a slower growth rate for the third quarter of 2025, with an estimate of 2.2%. This forecast is updated regularly based on incoming economic data.