Here is the breakdown of exactly how much of the world’s business is conducted in Dollars versus other currencies.
1. The “Invoicing” Number: ~50%
Approximately 50% of all global trade invoices are written in US Dollars.
The Disconnect: This is staggering because the United States itself only accounts for about 10–11% of global trade volumes.
The Reality: If Brazil sells coffee to Vietnam, or if Saudi Arabia sells oil to India, they almost always write the contract in US Dollars, not Reals, Dongs, or Rupees. This is known as “Vehicle Currency” status.
Total Value: With global trade estimated at roughly $35 Trillion in 2025, this means roughly $17.5 Trillion worth of goods annually are priced and sold in USD.
2. The “Payments” Number (SWIFT): ~59%
When it comes to actually transferring the money between banks (via the SWIFT messaging system), the Dollar’s dominance is even higher because it is the “middleman” currency for smaller nations.
USD Share:~59% (Recent data shows it widening its lead).
Euro Share:~13% (Has declined significantly; historically it was often >30%).
Chinese Yuan (RMB):~5–6% (This has doubled in recent years but remains a distant third).
3. The “Reserves” Number: ~58%
This represents the “savings accounts” of Central Banks (like the Bank of Canada or People’s Bank of China).
USD:~58% of all global official reserves.5
Euro:~20%.6
The Shift: While the percentage of USD has slowly drifted down from ~70% (20 years ago) to ~58% today, the money hasn’t gone to other currencies—it has mostly gone into Gold.
Summary Table: The Dollar vs. The World
Metric
US Dollar Share
Next Competitor
Trade Invoicing
~50%
Euro (~20%)
Global Payments (SWIFT)
~59%
Euro (~13%)
Central Bank Reserves
~58%
Euro (~20%)
Oil Markets
~90%+
Yuan (growing in Russian/Iranian trade)
Why this matters for your Canadian business
Because 50% of trade is invoiced in USD, the CAD/USD exchange rate (currently ~$1.38) impacts your input costs even if you aren’t buying from America.
If you buy paper from a mill in Brazil or Indonesia, they likely set their price in USD.
When the Canadian Dollar weakens, all of your global imports get more expensive, not just the ones from the U.S.
As of early 2026, the United States debt-to-GDP ratio sits at approximately 125.4%, meaning the national debt is now roughly 25% larger than the entire annual economic output of the country.
For the first time in history, the US government is now spending over $1 trillion annually just on interest payments—more than the entire budget for the Department of Defense.
Here is the breakdown of how the U.S. compares to other major economies and the details on the interest costs.
1. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Comparison (2025–2026 Estimates)
The U.S. has one of the highest debt ratios in the developed world, surpassed significantly only by Japan and arguably Italy.
Country
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Context
Japan
~235%
The world leader in debt, but unique because most of it is held domestically by Japanese citizens/banks, making a crisis less likely.
Italy
~138%
Perennially high debt; a major concern for the Eurozone.
United States
~125%
High & Rising. The U.S. benefits from the dollar being the world reserve currency, allowing it to borrow cheaper than others.
France
~116%
Struggling with budget deficits similar to the U.S.
United Kingdom
~103%
Has risen sharply post-pandemic and energy crisis.
China
~88%*
*Official government debt is lower, but if you include “Local Government Financing Vehicles” (shadow debt), estimates often exceed 110%.
Canada
~69%
Relatively healthy compared to G7 peers (Federal & Provincial combined).
Germany
~63%
The “fiscal hawk” of Europe; constitutionally limits new debt.
2. The Interest Payments: A New “Trillion Dollar” Line Item
The cost to service the U.S. debt has exploded due to the combination of a massive debt pile (~$36 Trillion+) and higher interest rates (averaging 4-5% on new Treasury bonds).1
Current Annual Cost:~$1.05 Trillion (Annualized Rate as of late 2025).
The Milestone: In FY2025, interest payments officially exceeded the Defense Budget (~$850B) and Medicare spending for the first time.
Why it matters: This money buys nothing—no roads, no tanks, no healthcare. It is simply the cost of renting money.2 It crowds out other government priorities; every dollar spent on interest is a dollar that cannot be spent on tax cuts or new programs.3+1
3. Why isn’t the U.S. in a crisis like Greece?
You might wonder why a 125% ratio caused a collapse in Greece (2010) but not in the U.S.
Reserve Currency: The world trades in Dollars. Foreign nations need U.S. debt (Treasury bonds) to facilitate trade, creating permanent demand for U.S. debt that other countries don’t have.
Control of Currency: The U.S. borrows in its own currency (Dollars). It can technically never “run out” of money to pay debts, though printing money to pay debt leads to high inflation.
Economic Engine: Despite the debt, the U.S. economy (GDP) grows faster than Europe or Japan, convincing investors it can handle the load—for now.
For years, Kraken was known as a “niche sonar company.” In early 2026, it is rapidly re-rating as a critical defense supplier for autonomous underwater warfare.
Here is a 3-year chart:
Here is the overview of the company’s current status, financials, and the major news from this week that is driving the stock.
1. The “Headline” News (January 2026)
The most important update for you is the announcement made just yesterday (Jan 13, 2026).
The Deal: Kraken secured $35 million in purchase orders for its SeaPower™ batteries.
Why it matters: This confirms that Kraken is no longer just selling “eyes” (Sonar) for underwater drones; it is now selling the “heart” (Power).
The Customer: While unnamed, industry analysts strongly link these batteries to major defense prime contractors (like Anduril and its “Ghost Shark” program) who need massive, pressure-tolerant batteries for long-endurance missions.
2. Financial Snapshot (The Growth Curve)
Kraken has shifted from “unprofitable R&D” to “profitable growth.”
Stock Price: Trading in the $5.25 – $6.10 CAD range (up significantly from the $1.00 range seen in 2024).
Market Cap: Now exceeding $1.1 Billion CAD, moving it out of “micro-cap” territory.
Revenue Run Rate:
Q3 2025 (Last reported): Revenue hit $31.3 million (up 60% year-over-year).
EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA hit $8.0 million (up 92%).
2026 Outlook: Analysts expect 2026 revenue to easily clear $150M+ as their new factory comes online.
3. The “Three-Pillar” Business Model
Kraken is unique because it owns the entire technology stack for subsea warfare and energy.
A. The “Eyes”: Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS)
Product:KATFISH™ Towed SAS System.
The Tech: Traditional sonar creates blurry images. Kraken’s SAS creates “photo-quality” images of the seabed using software processing.
Use Case: Minehunting (finding sea mines) and Pipeline Inspection.
Key Clients: NATO navies (Canada, USA, Denmark, Poland).
B. The “Heart”: SeaPower™ Batteries (The New Growth Engine)
The Tech: Most subsea batteries need heavy steel pressure vessels to survive deep water. Kraken’s batteries are pressure-tolerant (potted in polymer). They don’t need a heavy shell, so they are lighter and hold 2x the energy of competitors.
Catalyst: A new Battery Manufacturing Facility in Nova Scotia is opening this quarter (Q1 2026) to triple their production capacity.
C. The “Service”: Robotics as a Service (RaaS)
Instead of selling the robot ($2M), Kraken will bring their robot and crew to your site and charge you per day to map the ocean floor.
Acquisition: In 2025, they acquired 3D at Depth, adding “Subsea LiDAR” (lasers) to their service offering, allowing them to measure underwater infrastructure with millimeter accuracy for oil & gas clients.
4. Investment Risks
Despite the hype, there are two specific risks to watch in 2026:
Valuation: The stock is trading at a high multiple (Price-to-Sales > 10x). The market has “priced in” perfection for the new battery factory. Any delay in opening that factory could hurt the stock.
Geopolitics: Their growth is tied to Defense budgets. If the Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan tensions de-escalate significantly, the “urgency” for underwater drones may fade.
Summary
Kraken Robotics has successfully graduated from a “science project” to a Defense Industrial mid-cap.
2024 Story: “They have cool sonar.”
2026 Story: “They are the primary battery supplier for the Western world’s underwater drone fleet.”
You have two distinct options here: betting against the Oil Companies (Stocks) or betting against the Price of Oil (Commodity).
Strategy
New Ticker
Old Ticker
Fund Name
Short Oil STOCKS
NRGD
(HED)
BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy -2x Daily Bear
Short Oil PRICE
HOD
(Kept Ticker)
BetaPro Crude Oil Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear
Short Nat Gas
HND
(Kept Ticker)
BetaPro Natural Gas Inverse Leveraged Daily Bear
Crucial Distinction:
Buy NRGD if you think Suncor/CNQ stocks will fall.
Buy HOD if you think the WTI Oil Price will fall. (HOD is extremely volatile and suffers from “decay” if held long-term).
3. Betting Against Canadian Banks
With the mortgage renewal cliff in 2026, this is a popular trade for those bearish on the housing market.
Strategy
New Ticker
Old Ticker
Fund Name
-2x Bank Bear
CFOD
(HFD)
BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials -2x Daily Bear
4. Betting Against US Tech (TSX Listed)
Many Canadians use their CAD accounts to short the US market without converting currency.
Strategy
New Ticker
Old Ticker
Fund Name
Short S&P 500
SPXD
(HSD)
BetaPro S&P 500 -2x Daily Bear ETF
Short NASDAQ
QQD
(HQD)
BetaPro NASDAQ-100 -2x Daily Bear ETF
⚠️ Critical Warning: The “Daily Reset” Trap
These ETFs are not long-term investments.1 They are designed for 1-day trades.
The Decay: Because they reset their leverage every single day, holding them for weeks or months will erode your value, even if the market goes in your direction.2
Example: If the market is flat but volatile (up 2% one day, down 2% the next), you will lose money in both the Bull (+2x) and Bear (-2x) funds over time.
Rule of Thumb: Do not hold these tickers (especially the -2x ones like CNDD or HOD) for longer than a few days unless you are actively managing the position.
Yes, CNDI (BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Daily Inverse ETF) does decay.
Even though it is only -1x (Single Inverse) and not -2x like the riskier funds, it still suffers from “Volatility Drag” because of its daily reset mechanism.
If you hold CNDI for more than one day in a choppy market, you are mathematically guaranteed to lose value over time, even if the TSX 60 ends up flat.
The Math: How the “Daily Reset” Eats Your Money
To understand why it decays, look at this simple 2-day scenario where the market goes Up one day and Down the next, ending back where it started.
Scenario: The “Choppy” Market
Imagine the TSX 60 Index starts at $100.
Day 1: The Market goes UP 10%.
Day 2: The Market goes DOWN 9.09% (this brings it exactly back to $100).
Here is what happens to your CNDI shares:
Day
Market Action
CNDI Action (Inverse)
Your CNDI Value
Start
Index at $100
Buy at $100
$100.00
Day 1
Market +10% (to $110)
CNDI -10%
$90.00
Day 2
Market -9.09% (back to $100)
CNDI +9.09%
$98.18
Result
Market is FLAT ($0 change)
You LOST ~$1.82
-1.8% Loss
The Decay: The market did nothing (returned to zero), but you lost nearly 2% of your money. This is because losing 10% hurts you more than gaining 9% helps you. You are trying to recover from a smaller base ($90 instead of $100).
Why CNDI Decays Slower than CNDD (-2x)
While CNDI decays, it is much safer than the -2x leveraged version (CNDD). Decay essentially “squares” with leverage.
CNDI (-1x): Moderate Decay (Dangerous over months).
CNDD (-2x): Rapid Decay (Dangerous over weeks).
Summary Rule
Use CNDI for: A trade lasting 1 day to 2 weeks when you are confident the market will drop in a straight line.
Do NOT use CNDI for: A long-term “hedge” against a recession. If the market grinds sideways for 6 months before crashing, your CNDI shares will have already decayed significantly, and you won’t get the full protection you expected.
Better Hedge: If you need protection for 6+ months, it is often cheaper to buy Put Options on the TSX 60 (XIU) rather than holding an inverse ETF that bleeds value daily.
_____________
Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes. The article was written with the help of AI and was reviewed by an editor.
This history is often described by economists and nationalists as the “Hollowing Out of Corporate Canada.”
The Thesis: From “Builder” to “Branch”
Fifty years ago, Canada didn’t just dig rocks; it built the global companies that managed them. Toronto and Vancouver were the command centers of the global mining industry. Today, while the mines are still here (they can’t move), the decisions are largely made in Switzerland (Glencore), Brazil (Vale), London (Rio Tinto), and Australia (BHP).
Era 1: The Golden Age of Canadian Giants (1970s – 2005)
In this era, Canadian companies were the predators, not the prey. They aggressively acquired assets globally.
The Big Four: The industry was dominated by four massive, Canadian-headquartered titans:
Inco (International Nickel Company): Based in Toronto, it controlled the global nickel market from Sudbury, Ontario.
Falconbridge: Another nickel/copper giant, Inco’s fierce rival, also based in Toronto.
Noranda: A massive diversified miner and smelter (Quebec roots) that was a crown jewel of Canadian industry.
Alcan (Aluminum Company of Canada): Based in Montreal, it was the second-largest aluminum producer in the world.
The Status Quo: These companies developed world-leading technology (like Inco’s flash smelting) and their CEOs were powerful figures in Canadian public policy.
Era 2: The “Great Exodus” (2005 – 2007)
In a span of just 24 months, Canada lost almost its entire top tier of mining companies to foreign buyouts. This period effectively ended Canada’s reign as a global mining manager.
2006: The Loss of Falconbridge & Noranda
The Deal: After a complicated bidding war, Xstrata (a Swiss-Anglo giant) acquired Falconbridge (which had just merged with Noranda) for $18 billion.
The Result: One of Canada’s oldest mining names disappeared into a Swiss conglomerate (which later merged with Glencore).
2006: The Loss of Inco
The Deal: In a shock to national pride, Inco was acquired by Vale (CVRD) of Brazil for $19 billion.
The Context: Inco had tried to merge with Falconbridge to create a “Canadian Super-Miner” to fight off foreign takeovers, but the deal failed. Vale swooped in, and the “Sudbury Basin” effectively became a Brazilian outpost.
2007: The Loss of Alcan
The Deal:Rio Tinto (UK/Australia) bought Alcan for $38 billion.
The Result: It was renamed “Rio Tinto Alcan.” While the HQ technically stayed in Montreal for the aluminum division, the strategic power shifted to London.
Why did this happen?
The Canadian government (under Stephen Harper) approved these deals under the Investment Canada Act, declaring they were a “net benefit” to Canada. Critics argued it stripped Canada of its head offices, R&D departments, and high-paying legal/financial service jobs.
Era 3: The “Critical Minerals” Pivot & The Last Stand (2008 – 2024)
After the 2006 exodus, the government realized it had made a mistake. The narrative shifted from “free market” to “strategic protectionism,” especially regarding Potash and Critical Minerals.
2010: The BHP-PotashCorp Block
A pivotal moment. BHP Billiton (Australia) tried to buy PotashCorp (Saskatchewan) for $40 billion.
The Twist: The federal government blocked the deal—the first time it had ever used the “Net Benefit” test to stop a major takeover. They realized losing the world’s largest fertilizer company was a bridge too far. (PotashCorp eventually merged with Agrium to form Nutrien, keeping it Canadian).
2023-2024: The Teck Resources Saga
Teck Resources was the “Last Mohican”—the last major diversified miner left in Canada.
The Glencore Raid: In 2023, Glencore launched a hostile takeover bid for the entire company.
The Defense: The Canadian government and the Keevil family (who controlled Teck’s voting shares) pushed back, citing “Critical Minerals” security.
The Compromise (The Split): Teck agreed to sell only its coal assets (Elk Valley) to Glencore (completed mid-2024), keeping the “green metals” (Copper/Zinc) as a standalone Canadian company… until late 2025.
Era 4: The “Merger of Equals” Era (2025 – Present)
The definition of “Takeover” has changed. Foreign companies now propose “Mergers” to avoid the political heat of a “Takeover.”
Late 2025: The Anglo-Teck Merger
In September 2025, Teck Resources and Anglo American announced a $70B merger.
The Spin: They call it a “merger of equals” with a headquarters in Canada, but Anglo shareholders own ~62% of the company. It effectively marks the end of Teck as a purely independent Canadian entity, though it survives in name.
2025-2026: The New Reality
Today, “Canadian Mining” is largely composed of Mid-Tier companies (like Agnico Eagle, First Quantum, Lundin). The “Global Majors” are almost entirely foreign-owned.
Summary Table
Company
Acquired By
Country of Buyer
Year
Price
Noranda / Falconbridge
Xstrata (now Glencore)
Switzerland/UK
2006
~$18B
Inco
Vale
Brazil
2006
~$19B
Alcan
Rio Tinto
UK/Australia
2007
~$38B
Teck (Coal Division)
Glencore
Switzerland
2024
~$9B
Teck (Metals Division)
Anglo American (Merger)
UK
2025
~$70B (Deal value)
Key Takeaway:
The last 50 years was a transition from “Owners” to “Operators.” Canada is still a mining superpower in terms of geology and production, but it is no longer a superpower in terms of capital and control.
Just hours ago, news broke that Glencore and Rio Tinto are in preliminary merger talks. If this deal happens, it would create the largest mining company in history, valued at over $200 billion.
Here is the breakdown of Glencore’s situation and its massive footprint in Canada.
1. The Headline: The “Mega-Merger” Talks
The News (Jan 9, 2026): Glencore shares jumped roughly 10% today following reports that rival Rio Tinto is considering a bid to acquire the company.
The Logic:
Rio Tinto wants copper for the energy transition (EVs, Data Centers), and Glencore is one of the world’s largest copper producers.
The Problem: Rio Tinto exited the coal business years ago to be “green.” Glencore is the world’s biggest thermal coal shipper.
The Timeline: Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto has until February 5, 2026, to make a formal offer or walk away.
2. The Canadian “Coal Giant” (Elk Valley)
For your Canadian context, Glencore is now a dominant player in British Columbia.
The Acquisition: In mid-2024, Glencore completed the purchase of Teck Resources’ steelmaking coal business (Elk Valley Resources) for roughly $9 billion USD.
Current Status: Glencore now owns the massive Fording River, Elkview, and Greenhills mines in BC.
Why it matters: This is “Metallurgical Coal” (used to make steel), not “Thermal Coal” (burned for power). It is highly profitable and was a key reason Glencore wanted the assets.
The Spin-Off Question: Originally, Glencore planned to spin this coal business off into a separate company on the NYSE. That plan is currently in limbo. With the Rio Tinto talks happening, they may keep it or sell it to satisfy Rio’s ESG concerns.
3. Commodity Mix & Production
Copper (The Crown Jewel): This is the main attraction for investors. Glencore aims to produce 1.6 million tonnes of copper annually by 2035. However, production in late 2025 was softer than expected due to mine sequencing issues.
Cobalt: They remain the world’s largest producer of cobalt (essential for EV batteries), primarily from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Zinc & Nickel: They are a top-tier global supplier, giving them immense leverage in the “Battery Metals” supply chain.
4. The “Old” Glencore Baggage
Legal/ESG: While the company settled its massive bribery investigations in 2022 (paying ~$1.5B in fines), individual accountability is still ongoing. In November 2025, several former executives entered “Not Guilty” pleas in a UK court regarding corruption charges. A trial is set for late 2027.
Reputation: This “legacy” issue is one of the reasons Glencore trades at a discount compared to BHP or Rio Tinto, making it an attractive takeover target.
Summary for Your Business
If the Merger Happens: Expect massive rebranding and contract reviews. Rio Tinto has stricter supplier standards than Glencore. If you service the old Teck mines in BC, a Rio takeover could change your procurement contacts.
If it Doesn’t: Glencore remains a cash-rich giant that is aggressively paying down debt and generating huge cash flow from its new Canadian coal mines.
Based on the most recent financial data available for the 2024–2025 fiscal year, here is the summary of the world’s largest metal producers by revenue.
The rankings are heavily skewed by business model. You have to separate the “Traders” (who sell other people’s metal) from the “Miners” (who dig it out of the ground) and the “Steelmakers” (who refine it).
1. The “Hybrid” Giant (Trading + Mining)
Glencore sits in a category of its own because its revenue includes its massive “Marketing” division (buying and selling commodities produced by third parties).
Rank
Company
Country
Revenue (USD)
Primary Metals
#1
Glencore
🇨🇭 Swiss / 🇬🇧 UK
~$231 Billion
Copper, Coal, Zinc, Cobalt
Context: While Glencore has huge revenue, its profit margins are much thinner than the pure miners because trading is a high-volume, low-margin game.
2. The “Pure” Mining Giants
These companies have lower revenue than Glencore but often higher profits because they own the assets (mines) and sell what they dig.
Rank
Company
Country
Revenue (USD)
Primary Metals
#1
BHP Group
🇦🇺 Australia
~$55.7 Billion
Iron Ore, Copper, Coal
#2
Rio Tinto
🇬🇧 UK / 🇦🇺 Australia
~$53.7 Billion
Iron Ore, Aluminum, Copper
#3
Vale S.A.
🇧🇷 Brazil
~$38.1 Billion
Iron Ore, Nickel
#4
Freeport-McMoRan
🇺🇸 USA
~$26.0 Billion
Copper, Gold
Merger Impact: If Rio Tinto ($53.7B) buys Glencore ($231B), the combined entity would have revenues exceeding $280 Billion, dwarfing every other competitor in the sector.
3. The State-Owned Powerhouses (China)
Western lists often ignore these, but they are technically the largest metal producers by volume and revenue.
Rank
Company
Country
Revenue (USD)
Primary Metals
#1
China Minmetals
🇨🇳 China
~$115 Billion
Diversified (Copper, Zinc, Lead)
#2
Jiangxi Copper
🇨🇳 China
~$72 Billion
Copper
#3
Zijin Mining
🇨🇳 China
~$41 Billion
Copper, Gold, Lithium
4. The Steel Giants
Steelmakers generate massive revenue due to the high value of the finished product, even if their margins are tight.
Rank
Company
Country
Revenue (USD)
Primary Metals
#1
China Baowu Group
🇨🇳 China
~$160 Billion
Steel
#2
ArcelorMittal
🇱🇺 Luxembourg
~$62.4 Billion
Steel
#3
Nippon Steel
🇯🇵 Japan
~$61.2 Billion
Steel
#4
POSCO Holdings
🇰🇷 South Korea
~$51.4 Billion
Steel, Battery Materials
Summary Trend for Your Business
The “Big Three” Iron Ore Players (BHP, Rio, Vale): They are cash cows, but their revenues are essentially flat or slightly down due to weaker Chinese construction demand.
The “Green Metal” Players (Glencore, Jiangxi, Freeport): These are the ones seeing revenue volatility (and growth potential) tied to the Copper boom for data centers and EVs.
If the Glencore-Rio Tinto merger proceeds, the combined entity would be a behemoth in the Canadian resource sector, but surprisingly, their assets do not overlap much. Instead, they fit together like puzzle pieces, creating massive regional dominance.
Here is the breakdown of what a “Rio-Glencore” map of Canada would look like, by province.
1. Quebec: The Industrial Fortress
This is where the merger would be most powerful. A combined company would effectively control the entire base metal processing capacity of the province.
Rio Tinto’s Assets (Aluminum & Titanium):
Alcan Operations: Owns the massive aluminum smelters in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region (Alma, Arvida, Grande-Baie, Laterrière).
Sorel-Tracy: Owns Rio Tinto Fer et Titane, which mines titanium and iron ore at Havre-Saint-Pierre and processes it in Sorel-Tracy.
Glencore’s Assets (Copper & Zinc):
Rouyn-Noranda: Owns the Horne Smelter, the only copper smelter in Canada (critical for recycling electronics).
Montreal (East): Owns the CCR Refinery, which processes the copper from the Horne Smelter.
Valleyfield: Owns CEZinc, the second-largest zinc refinery in North America.
Raglan Mine: Massive nickel mine in Nunavik (far north Quebec).
The Impact: If you print for industrial safety, training, or logistics in Quebec, this single company would control the Aluminum, Copper, Zinc, Titanium, and Nickel supply chains. They would be the province’s largest industrial employer by far.
2. British Columbia: The “Green vs. Black” Conflict
This is where the merger gets messy politically.
Rio Tinto (The “Green” Giant):
Kitimat: Owns the massive “BC Works” aluminum smelter, powered by its own hydroelectric dam (Kemano). It markets this as “low carbon aluminum.”
Glencore (The “Black” Giant):
Elk Valley: As of 2024, owns the massive steelmaking coal mines (formerly Teck Resources) in the southeast Rockies (Fording River, Elkview, Greenhills).
The Conflict: Rio Tinto spent years exiting coal to polish its ESG image. Buying Glencore brings them right back into the coal business in BC. Analysts speculate Rio might spin these coal mines off again to keep their “green” investors happy.
3. Ontario: The Sudbury/Timmins Split
Glencore’s Turf:
Sudbury: Owns “Sudbury INO” (Integrated Nickel Operations) – a major nickel/copper miner and smelter.
Timmins: Owns the Kidd Creek mine (Copper/Zinc). Note: This mine is nearing the end of its life (scheduled closure ~2026/2027), so it’s less of a long-term factor.
Rio Tinto’s Turf:
Rio has effectively no presence in Ontario mining. That is Vale (Brazilian) territory.
The Impact: This is good for regulators. Since there is no overlap in Sudbury, the Competition Bureau likely won’t block the deal on Ontario grounds.
4. Newfoundland & Labrador: The Iron King
Rio Tinto:
Owns the majority stake (~59%) in the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC).
Assets: Massive mines in Labrador City and the railway/port in Sept-Îles, Quebec.
Glencore:
Has no major operational footprint here, though they trade iron ore globally.
Summary for Your Business (The “Client List” Shift)
If this merger happens, the “Procurement Department” for half of Canada’s mining industry consolidates.
The Opportunity: If you are already a vendor for Rio Tinto, you essentially get a “hunting license” to pitch your services to the Glencore sites (Sudbury Nickel, Quebec Copper) that might adopt Rio’s standards.
The Risk: If you are a vendor for Glencore, get ready for a paperwork headache. Rio Tinto is known for having more rigid, bureaucratic supplier compliance standards than Glencore.
As of January 2, 2026, the price of WTI Crude Oil is approximately $57.50 USD per barrel. The price of oil shown in the chart is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale.
1. The Era of Cheap Oil (1968–1972)
Before the formation of OPEC as a political force, oil prices were remarkably stable and controlled largely by the “Seven Sisters” (major US/European oil companies).
1968 Price:~$3.00
Context: Oil was abundant and cheap. The US was the world’s swing producer, and prices rarely moved more than a few cents.
2. The Oil Shocks (1973–1985)
Everything changed in the 1970s when control of pricing shifted from Western companies to Middle Eastern nations.
1973 (The First Shock): Prices tripled from $4 to $12 following the Arab Oil Embargo (Yom Kippur War).
1979 (The Second Shock): Prices doubled from $15 to $39.50 following the Iranian Revolution.
1980 Peak: Reached an inflation-adjusted high that wouldn’t be beaten until 2008.
3. The Great Collapse & The “Lost Decade” (1986–1999)
A massive oversupply (the “Glut”) caused prices to crash, leading to a long era of cheap energy.1
1986 Crash: Saudi Arabia tired of cutting production and flooded the market.2 Prices collapsed from $30 to $10 in roughly four months.
1990 Spike: Briefly hit $40 during the Gulf War (Iraq/Kuwait) but quickly fell back.3
1998 Low: The Asian Financial Crisis crushed demand, sending oil down to $11.90 per barrel.
4. The “Supercycle” (2000–2014)
Driven by the industrialization of China and India, demand exploded.4
2000-2007: steady climb from $25 to $90.
2008 Peak: WTI hit its all-time record of $147.27 in July 2008.
2008 Crash: The Global Financial Crisis sent it crashing down to $33 by December.
2011–2014: The “Hundred Dollar Era.” Prices stabilized over $100 for nearly three years due to the Arab Spring.
5. The Shale Revolution & COVID (2015–2021)
US Fracking technology flooded the market with new supply, breaking OPEC’s grip.
2014 Crash: Prices fell from $107 to $50 as OPEC refused to cut production to fight US shale.5
2020 (The Anomaly): During the pandemic lockdowns, demand vanished. On April 20, 2020, WTI futures briefly traded at negative -$37.63 (traders paid people to take the oil).
6. The War & The Correction (2022–2026)
2022 High: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices back to $123.
2023–2024: Prices slowly ground lower as interest rates rose and US production hit record highs.
Late 2025/Early 2026: Prices have softened significantly to the $57–$60 range due to fears of oversupply and weak demand from China.6
2025 was a historic, record-breaking year for the Canadian stock market. The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the year with a gain of 28.25%, marking its best annual performance since 2009.
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Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes.
Analysis: Trade with the trend until it ends. Enjoy the ride.
_____________
Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes.
Preliminary demographic estimates indicate that Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 people (-0.2%) over the third quarter of 2025, standing at 41,575,585 on October 1, 2025.
Analysis: This was published in the The Globe and Mail. One of the metrics that shows the relative overvaluation of the two indexes.
This was the year when everyone, everywhere, made money. In fact, if you had celebrated New Year’s Day 2025 by downing a few cocktails, throwing darts at a map of the world and then buying stocks wherever they landed, chances are you would have done magnificently.
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