It is all about time and the annualized rate of return. The most important concept in investing.
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The Hottest New Crypto Trade Is 24/7 Oil Futures
Published March 14, 2026
Analysis: This was published in WSJ today. It is worth the read.
While traditional energy investors spent the past weekend counting down the minutes until futures markets reopened on Sunday, overseas crypto traders were already placing their bets on the direction of oil prices.
Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us
Published March 8, 2026
Oil surges above $110 a barrel
Silver is seeing a significant sell-off the morning of March 3, 2026
Published March 3, 2026
Here is a 6-month silver chart:
Silver is seeing a significant sell-off this morning, Tuesday, March 3, 2026, primarily because the initial “geopolitical shock” that drove prices to record highs over the weekend is beginning to fade, leading to aggressive profit-taking.
While gold is holding up better as a pure safe-haven, silver (the “restless cousin”) is down sharply—dropping as much as 7-8% in early trading to move back toward the $82–$84/oz range.
Here are the three specific factors driving the move:
1. The “Safe-Haven” Rotation to the US Dollar
While silver often benefits from geopolitical tension (like the current conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran), the US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to a 5-week high (near 98.5). In times of extreme uncertainty, global capital often flows into the dollar and US Treasuries rather than metals. Since silver is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for international buyers, creating immediate downward pressure.
2. Shifting Fed Expectations (The “September” Delay)
Stronger-than-expected US manufacturing and inflation data (ISM Prices Paid hitting a 3.5-year high) have changed the math for interest rates.
- The News: Markets have pushed back the expected timing for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from July to September 2026.
- The Impact: Silver provides no yield (interest). When interest rates are expected to stay “higher for longer,” the opportunity cost of holding silver increases, causing traders to dump positions in favor of bonds.
3. Technical Profit-Taking & “Stop-Hunting”
Silver had an “explosive surge” reaching near $95–$96/oz on Sunday/Monday.
- Overbought: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit extreme levels (above 70), signaling the market was overextended.
- The Cascade: Once silver failed to hold the $95 “make-or-break” resistance level this morning, it triggered a wave of “stop-loss” orders, accelerating the slide as short-term momentum traders exited their positions simultaneously.
Summary Table: Silver’s Morning Slide
| Metric | Status (Mar 3, 2026) |
| Current Spot Price | ~$84.20/oz |
| Daily Change | -7.2% to -8.5% |
| Key Support | $82.00 / $81.50 |
| Main Catalyst | Strengthening USD + Delayed Fed Rate Cuts |
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Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes. The article was written with the help of AI and was reviewed by an editor.
© 2026 TradeOnline.ca InvestOnline.ca ChartAnalysis.ca
Top 10 Countries by Oil Reserves
Published March 1, 2026
Based on data from the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025 and the Energy Institute Statistical Review.
| Rank | Country | Reserves (Billion Barrels) | World Share (%) |
| 1 | Venezuela | 303.2 | 17.2% |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia | 267.2 | 15.1% |
| 3 | Iran | 208.6 | 11.8% |
| 4 | Canada | 163.1 | 9.2% |
| 5 | Iraq | 145.0 | 8.2% |
| 6 | United Arab Emirates | 113.0 | 6.4% |
| 7 | Kuwait | 101.5 | 5.8% |
| 8 | Russia | 80.0 | 4.5% |
| 9 | Libya | 48.4 | 2.7% |
| 10 | United States | 45.0 | 2.5% |
Key Market Observations
- OPEC Dominance: Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) control roughly 79% of the world’s proven reserves.
- The Venezuela Paradox: While Venezuela holds the largest reserves, much of its oil is “extra-heavy” crude, which is expensive to extract and refine. Consequently, its actual production often lags far behind countries like the U.S. or Saudi Arabia.
- Canadian Oil Sands: Canada’s high ranking is largely due to the oil sands in Alberta. Like Venezuela, these are more difficult and costly to process than the “light sweet” crude found in the Middle East.
- Production vs. Reserves: The United States is currently the world’s leading oil producer, yet it ranks 10th in reserves. This highlights how quickly a country can extract its resources versus how much it has left in the ground.
Emerging Regions
Keep an eye on Guyana, which has seen a meteoric rise in proven reserves (now over 11 billion barrels) following massive offshore discoveries. It is currently one of the fastest-growing oil provinces in the world.
Note: “Proven reserves” are those that can be recovered with “reasonable certainty” under current economic and operating conditions. These numbers change as new technology makes extraction cheaper or as new fields are discovered.
Canada’s oil reserves can be ranked by type and location. Here’s a breakdown of the major categories, along with their approximate reserves:
| Rank | Category | Location | Estimated Reserves |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oil Sands | Alberta | Approx. 167 billion barrels (over 97% of Canada’s total reserves) |
| 2 | Conventional Oil | Saskatchewan | Approx. 7 billion barrels |
| 3 | Conventional Oil | Newfoundland and Labrador | Approx. 1.6 billion barrels |
| 4 | Tight Oil (Shale Oil) | Alberta and Saskatchewan | Approx. 1 billion barrels (estimates vary) |
Additional Notes
- Oil Sands: The vast majority of Canada’s oil is found in the oil sands of Alberta, where it is extracted using surface mining and in-situ techniques.
- Conventional Oil: While smaller in comparison to oil sands, conventional oil reserves are significant in provinces like Saskatchewan and Newfoundland.
- Tight Oil: Tight oil, extracted from shale formations, is increasingly becoming a part of Canada’s oil output, although it remains a smaller portion of total reserves.
Note: Published with the assistance of AI and reviewed by an editor
What is the average annual return for the S&P 500 Index?
While “10%” is the common shorthand answer, the truth depends entirely on your timeframe and whether you count dividends.
As of February 25, 2026, the S&P 500 has just come off a historic “triple-peat,” finishing 2025 up 17.9%, following gains of 25% in 2024 and 26.3% in 2023.
Historical Average Annual Returns
| Timeframe | Average Annual Return | Inflation-Adjusted (Real) |
| Last 10 Years (2016–2026) | ~12.2% | ~8.5% |
| Last 30 Years (1996–2026) | ~10.1% | ~7.2% |
| Since 1957 Inception | ~10.2% | ~6.5% |
| Since 1926 (Historical Data) | ~9.8% | ~6.2% |
Three Essential Nuances for Investors
1. The “Dividend Engine”
Price appreciation is only half the story. Dividends have historically accounted for roughly 31% to 34% of the S&P 500’s total return.
- Without reinvesting dividends, $10,000 invested in 1930 would have grown to roughly $278,000 today.
- With dividends reinvested, that same $10,000 would be worth over $9.5 Million.
2. The “Average” Year is Rare
The stock market almost never actually returns exactly 10% in a single year. Since 1871, the annual return has landed between 8% and 12% in less than 10% of years. The market usually “overshoots” (up 20%+) or “undershoots” (down 10%+).
3. The 20-Year “Safety Net”
If you have a short-term horizon, your odds of a positive return are basically a coin toss (59% monthly). However, looking at every rolling 20-year period since 1928, the S&P 500 has produced a positive total return 100% of the time.
Current Context (Early 2026)
With the S&P 500 currently trading near record highs (approx. 6,915), many analysts are predicting a “valuation reset.” Goldman Sachs forecasts a 12% total return for the full year of 2026, driven more by earnings growth from AI adoption than by the “multiple expansion” (stocks getting more expensive) we saw in 2024.
Based on a 7% conservative “real” return (which accounts for inflation), here is how a $10,000 investment would grow over the next decade:
The 10-Year Projection
- Initial Investment: $10,000.00
- Time Horizon: 10 Years
- Annual Return: 7%
- Total Future Value: $19,671.51
Key Takeaways
- The “Double” Rule: At a 7% return, your money effectively doubles every 10 years. You will have gained $9,671.51 in pure profit without adding another cent to the account.
- The Power of Compounding: Notice that your gain in Year 1 is only $700, but by Year 10, your investment is growing by over $1,280 per year. This “snowball effect” is why time in the market is more important than timing the market.
- Real vs. Nominal: Because we used a 7% “real” rate, that $19,671 represents today’s purchasing power. In actual dollars (nominal), the number might look like $26,000 or more, but it would buy the same amount of “stuff” that ~$19.6k buys today.
What if you added a small monthly contribution?
If you invested just $200 a month on top of that initial $10,000, your 10-year total would jump to **$53,308.83**.
Here is a compound interest calculator:
https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php
Thomson Reuters leans on proprietary data in AI race as disruption fears mount
Published in The Globe and Mail on February 24, 2026
Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI-T is betting on the value to professionals of artificial intelligence agents that can carry out complex tasks accurately and on their own, seeking to tamp down fears of disruption that have hung over the software sector in recent weeks.
As AI-based products flood the market, Toronto-based Thomson Reuters is seeking to draw a contrast. On one side is its own software, trained using a vast trove of content spanning the legal, tax and corporate sectors. And on the other, new plug-in tools brought to market by AI giants, which are directly challenging incumbents.
To highlight the difference, Thomson Reuters is making the case that its AI-based software is already taking hold at law firms as well as tax practices, as lawyers and accounting professionals seek to speed up their work and automate laborious tasks.
The company announced Tuesday that its AI-enabled CoCounsel technology now has one million users in more than 100 countries and territories.
Chief product officer David Wong predicts a turning point this year for businesses’ relationship with AI. He expects professional companies will focus more on the return they’re getting from AI investments.
“We are actually in a bit of an ROI crisis,” Mr. Wong told reporters. “Businesses have been experimenting with AI. They bought licences. They’ve run pilots. They’ve told their boards, ‘we’re investing in AI transformation.’ But they’re struggling to show results.”
Slumping tech stocks revive concerns about AI-fuelled disruption
Software and data providers such as Thomson Reuters have watched their share prices plunge lately, not for that reason, but in response to new tools for lawyers released by Anthropic, a leading AI company that makes the Claude large language models.
For some investors, that raised the risk that established software companies could be disrupted, and muddied the outlook about who will win or lose in the race to deploy AI for professionals.
In response, Thomson Reuters chief executive officer Steve Hasker said the market reaction “represents anxiety and not fundamentals.”
Woodbridge Co. Ltd., the Thomson family holding company and controlling shareholder of Thomson Reuters, also owns The Globe and Mail.
Although some investors interpreted Anthropic’s new tools as a direct threat to software providers, Thomson Reuters chief technology officer Joel Hron said the company has “developed a particularly deep collaboration” with Anthropic, which includes collaboration on engineering and research.
Thomson Reuters worked closely with Anthropic for the past year, using Claude as a foundation to develop the newest version of CoCounsel, which is billed as an autonomous legal assistant that can do its own research and deliver human-calibre output. A lawyer then reviews and validates what the agent drafts.
“This is not a black box,” Mr. Hron said. “It is meant to be a human collaborator.”
One Thomson Reuters tax product features an AI agent that helps prepare multiple tax returns for companies collecting sales tax in many jurisdictions, then flags items that need human review. The product’s first version cut the total amount of time spent on the process, which is typically very manual, by 60 to 70 per cent, Mr. Wong said.
Thomson Reuters has also been privately working on a project to develop a proprietary model, trained on a more concentrated set of data that draws on Thomson Reuters’s expertise in professional services. The company has worked closely with academics on the project.
Early benchmarking tests highlighted by Thomson Reuters suggest that its own model outperformed prominent rivals such as OpenAI’s GPT-5 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 on tests of reasoning and factuality, document review, summarization and AI-assisted research.
Some products present well in demonstrations but stumble when it comes to accuracy and verification, said Prof. Jonathan Richard Schwarz, head of AI research at Thomson Reuters and a visiting professor at Imperial College London.
On “correctness” and an emphasis on evidence, “the models are really struggling,” he said. “Rather than throwing more hardware and more compute at the same sort of approach, really you should try and bring in this domain expertise into the training process.”
Thomson Reuters leans on proprietary data in AI race as disruption fears mount – The Globe and Mail
The price of bitcoin has crashed the past few months
Published February 20, 2026
Bitcoin zero? Crypto evangelists have run out of stories to tell – The Globe and Mail
Ontario is proposing a new class of mutual funds. Investor advocates warn the risk may not be worth the reward.
Published February 7, 2026
The following article was published in The Globe and Mail on February 7, 2026. It is well written and worth the read.
Ontario’s securities market regulator has faced pressure from Premier Doug Ford’s government to authorize a new class of mutual funds aimed at retail investors that can hold higher-risk private assets such as real estate.
The initiative is being touted as a way to give ordinary investors access to the burgeoning world of privately owned companies and assets, which are mostly only directly available to institutions and sophisticated, wealthy accredited investors.
But investor advocates say private asset investing is riskier and typically more expensive than traditional mutual funds – especially for small investors – and the advocates warn that the plan to create new private asset mutual funds could lead to investors’ money being locked up for years in long-term real estate or infrastructure projects that have extremely complex fee structures.
Three people familiar with the process said the Ford government pushed the Ontario Securities Commission to launch the proposal as a way of raising money for big infrastructure projects. The OSC was urged to prepare a consultation paper unusually quickly, the people said, with the published result containing very little research or industry input.
The Globe and Mail has agreed not to identify the people as they are not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
Scott Blodgett, a spokesperson for Ontario’s Ministry of Finance, said in an e-mail that while the government discusses capital‑formation initiatives with the OSC and receives updates, it “does not direct or expedite regulatory work.”
“Decisions about long‑term asset fund design, timing and investor safeguards rest solely with the OSC,” Mr. Blodgett said.
OSC spokesperson Julia Mackenzie said the commission’s proposal to launch retail private assets “dates back” to a 2021 report published by the Capital Markets Modernization Taskforce – another regulatory initiative by the Ford government.
At that time, the task force recommended the OSC write a formal proposal on retail private equity investment funds, and then seek public input. The task force said the funds could help close a “funding gap” for smaller companies. Three years later, in the fall of 2024, the OSC launched a consultation paper on retail investors’ access to long-term assets that mentioned the funds could also increase opportunities for additional funding for government infrastructure projects.
“The OSC believes it is important to be open to new and innovative financial products that can enable capital formation and provide new opportunities for investors, with appropriate oversight, disclosure and investor protections,” Ms. Mackenzie told The Globe in an e-mail.
Here is the link to read the rest of this article: Ontario is proposing a new class of mutual funds. Investor advocates warn the risk may not be worth the reward – The Globe and Mail
This week’s highest savings account and guaranteed investment certificate rates in Canada
Published January 28, 2026
This week’s highest savings account and guaranteed investment certificate rates – The Globe and Mail
Bearish Divergence flashing on the SVR (and general silver) charts as of late January 2026
Published January 25, 2026
While the price of SVR has hit record highs (around $47.73), the underlying momentum indicators are telling a different story. This is a classic technical “red flag” that often precedes a price correction.
1. RSI Bearish Divergence (The Momentum Gap)
The most prominent divergence is between the Price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI):
- The Price: SVR has made “Higher Highs” throughout January, climbing from $33 to over $47.
- The RSI: The RSI momentum indicator peaked in mid-January (reaching an extreme overbought level above 85) and has since been making “Lower Highs.”
- What this means: Even though the price is still going up, the strength of the buying pressure is weakening. It’s like a car still rolling uphill but with its engine losing power.
2. Premium Divergence (The “Retail Fever”)
There is also a divergence between the ETF Price and the Physical Silver Value:
- As we noted, SVR is trading at a 3.67% premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV).3
- Normally, this premium stays near 0%. When it “diverges” and stays high while silver hits $100, it indicates that retail panic-buying is driving the ticker more than the actual value of the silver bars in the vault.
- The Danger: If the rally pauses, this premium often evaporates instantly, causing the ETF to drop significantly faster than the spot price of silver.
Summary of Technical Signals (Jan 25, 2026)
| Indicator | Signal | Interpretation |
| Price Action | Bullish | SVR is comfortably above its 50-day ($30.76) and 200-day ($21.56) averages. |
| RSI (14-day) | Bearish Divergence | Price is making new highs; RSI is making lower highs (currently ~73). |
| Premium/NAV | Bearish | +3.67% premium is historically unsustainable and suggests “froth.” |
| Candlesticks | Caution | Recent “long-wick” candles near $48 suggest sellers are starting to overpower buyers at these levels. |
Technical Strategy
In 2026, many traders are using the $44.00 level as their “line in the sand.”
- If SVR stays above $44.00, the “parabolic” trend is still alive.
- If it closes below $44.00 on high volume, the bearish divergence is officially “confirmed,” and the first target for a correction would likely be the 20-day moving average, currently near $38.00.
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Technical Analysis is about trading with the trend
Note: This technical analysis is for educational purposes. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author of this article may hold long or short positions in the featured stocks or indexes. The article was written with the help of AI and was reviewed by an editor.
© 2026 TradeOnline.ca InvestOnline.ca ChartAnalysis.ca
As of early 2026, here is an overview of the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation), including its funding, headcount, and revenue model
Published January 24, 2026
Executive Summary
The CBC is a federal Crown corporation that operates as Canada’s national public broadcaster. While it generates some of its own money, it is heavily dependent on public subsidies, which cover approximately 70-75% of its operating costs.
1. Headcount: How many people work there?
- Total Employees: Approximately 7,500 to 8,000 permanent, full-time equivalent employees.
- Recent Stability: In late 2023, the CBC announced plans to cut roughly 600–800 jobs (about 10% of its workforce) due to a projected budget shortfall. However, in the April 2024 Federal Budget, the government injected an additional $42 million specifically to prevent these layoffs. As of 2025/2026, the workforce has stabilized near historical levels, though attrition (not replacing people who retire) remains a tool for managing costs.
2. Public Subsidy: How much tax money do they get?
The CBC receives an annual “Parliamentary Appropriation” (taxpayer funding) voted on by the federal government.
- Annual Public Subsidy: Approximately $1.4 Billion CAD per year.
- Breakdown: This works out to roughly $33–$35 per Canadian per year.
- Trend: The funding has increased slightly in nominal terms to cover inflation and salary increases, but the broadcaster argues that in “real dollars” (inflation-adjusted), its funding has declined over the last decade.
- Recent Top-Up: The $42 million added in 2024 was a “stop-gap” measure to handle rising production costs and declining ad revenue, signalling the government’s intent to keep the current size of the organization intact for now.
3. Revenue Streams: Do they make their own money?
Yes. The CBC is not 100% publicly funded. It operates a “hybrid” model where it competes for advertising dollars against private companies (like Bell/CTV, Rogers/Citytv) and tech giants (Google/Meta).
- Self-Generated Revenue: Approximately $400 Million – $500 Million per year.
- This accounts for roughly 25–30% of their total budget.
- Where the money comes from:
- Advertising (TV & Digital): This is the largest chunk. They run commercials on CBC Television, CBC News Network, and their websites. Note: CBC Radio does not run commercial advertisements (except for limited sponsorships).
- Subscription Fees: Revenue from discretionary channels (like CBC News Network) that are part of cable packages, as well as monthly subscriptions for the premium version of CBC Gem (their streaming service).
- Content Licensing: Selling shows (like Schitt’s Creek or Murdoch Mysteries) to other broadcasters or streamers internationally.
- The Problem: Their “self-generated” revenue is shrinking. Traditional TV advertising is collapsing across the entire industry as money moves to digital platforms (Google/Facebook), and the CBC is struggling to replace those lost TV ad dollars with digital ones.
Summary Table (2025/2026 Estimates)
| Category | Approximate Amount | Notes |
| Public Funding (Subsidy) | ~$1.4 Billion | The core grant from Parliament. |
| Self-Generated Revenue | ~$450 Million | Ads, subscriptions, licensing. |
| Total Annual Budget | ~$1.85 Billion | Combined operating power. |
| Headcount | ~7,800 | Stabilized after 2024 funding injection. |
Why is this controversial?
The “Revenue Stream” is a major point of friction. Private broadcasters (like Global and CTV) argue that it is unfair for the CBC to receive $1.4 billion in tax money and compete against them for scarce advertising dollars. They argue this subsidized competition makes it harder for private Canadian news outlets to survive. The CBC counters that ad revenue is essential because the public subsidy alone is not enough to maintain its current level of services across TV, Radio, and Digital in both English and French.
https://cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/impact-and-accountability
Updated link February 11, 2026: I agree that the amount and placement of advertising was awful and disrespectable to the opening ceremonies CBC shouldn’t brush off the over 1,000 complaints it received about ads during Olympics opening ceremony – The Globe and Mail